By John Richardson ENVIRONMENTAL concerns over wasting the earth’s resources are one factor behind the rise of Uber and other ride-hailing services as a replacement for car ownership in cities. But in heavily congested cities, large several-tonne lumps of metal and plastic still spend a lot of time in traffic jams, even with clever routing […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The Three Essential Oil Price, Economic Growth Scenarios For Petchems
By John Richardson ALL the excitement over the positive impact of US tax cuts should be placed very firmly in this context from an early July Reuters article: US budget analysts generally look at the impact of tax changes over a ten-year period. The tax cuts approved at the end of 2017 were estimated to […]
China PP Imports To Halve By 2025 Or Turn Into Exports
By John Richardson CHINA IS accelerating its drive towards at the very least much greater PP self-sufficiency by 2025. There is also a credible second scenario where China becomes a significant exporter by that same year, most logically to the Asia and Pacific (A&P) region due to proximity and what will be stronger geopolitical and […]
US-China Trade War Draws Closer: Impact On Petrochemicals
By John Richardson NOTHING that has happened over the last 24 hours should take you by surprise. Your petrochemicals company has had ample time to prepare for the US-China trade war that has now become a much stronger possibility following the US decision to impose $60bn of new tariffs on Chinese imports. Shortly after President […]
House Of Cards Waiting To Fall: Oil, Equities And The Economy
By John Richardson HOW much of the rise in oil prices since June of last year has been down to the fundamentals of supply and demand versus the hedge funds taking out a record number of short positions? We are about to find out, I feel. There are early signs that the hedgies have started […]
Why US Tax Reforms May Fail To Address The Big Challenges
By John Richardson CORPORATE America is of course delighted with the biggest US tax reforms in a generation that seem very likely to pass unheeded through Congress this week and reach the president’s desk for final sign-off before Christmas. What isn’t there is to be pleased about, given that the main Federal corporate tax rate […]
Asian Polyethylene Producers: What You Must Do Now $70 Crude Is More Likely
By John Richardson THE facts on the ground in global crude markets have shifted even further in just two days. Now it seems more likely that oil prices will rise to $70 a barrel or above in Q1 of next year, possibly even earlier. What has changed are the ramifications of Saudi Arabia’s anti-corruption campaign. […]
Next Polyethylene Downcycle: Risk That History Will Repeat Itself
By John Richardson WE can break the history of the global polyethylene (PE) business so far this century into four major phases, thanks to the above chart, which was compiled with the help of our excellent Supply & Demand Database: 2000-2001: Global polyethylene (PE) operating rates dipped to an average of 81% on the end […]
Income Stagnation And The Impact On The Global Economy
By John Richardson HAVE the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) economic stimulus policies of the Western central banks worked? If your answer is yes, you might be heavily influenced by your economic circumstances. Those who are convinced that everything is working out just fine could include the small percentage of people at the summit of the […]
Economic And Geopolitical Chaos In 2017
By John Richardson MOST of the experts believed that Remain was going to win the vote on whether or not Britain would stay in the EU. Such was the strength of the consensus that even Nigel Farage, then leader of UKIP, seemed ready to concede defeat on the night of the vote. And well into […]
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