By John Richardson JUST when most of us thought we had figured out China’s polyethylene (PE) market, its ambiguities and complexities could again be about to come back and bite us. I am beginning to think that 2019 demand growth may not be as robust as I had thought would be the case only two weeks […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Iran’s alleged attacks on shipping likely a response to US targeting of petrochemicals exports
The following opinions are the personal views of the author and do not express the views of ICIS As tensions in the Gulf build between the US and Iran following the latest incident – the shooting down by Iran of a US military drone – today we run a special guest blog post by Chris […]
China PP demand at risk of 20 million tonnes shortfall in 2019-2025
By John Richardson THE CHANCES of some kind of trade deal have edged a little higher following the announcement that President Trump will have an extended meeting with President Xi at the G20 meeting in Japan later this month. They will not just pass each other in the corridor and shake hands during a group […]
Environmental credits separate polymer Winners and Losers as the world divides
By John Richardson THE WORLD is becoming a much more complex and fragmented place as the consensus about the benefits of open markets and the largely unrestricted movement of labour is challenged. There also seems to be a split between those individuals and governments that agree with the science supporting human-made climate change versus those […]
Trade War: 88m tonnes of lost polymers demand despite the boom in Asia ex-China
By John Richardson SURE, there are tremendous opportunities for petrochemicals and polymers companies in booming Southeast (SEA) Asia and South Asia as manufacturing chains relocate from China. Demographics are economic destiny. This is a process that has been taking place for at least ten years as Chinese labour costs rise on an ageing population whereas […]
Trade war certainties: A bi-polar world and the overwhelming importance of Chinese demand
By John Richardson THE IRONY IS that if the US trade deficit with China shrinks because of the trade war, its deficits with other developing countries may continue to increase as manufacturing chains are shifted away from China to avoid tariffs. The longer this situation continues, the more likely it could be that the US […]
China PP demand growth still heading for seven-year low despite surge in imports
By John Richardson ALL is not suddenly right with China’s polypropylene (PP) demand despite our revised data for January-April 2019 indicating growth is back on target to hit our forecast for the full year 2019 of around 6%. We had earlier placed January-April 2019 demand growth at just 2% compared with the same months last […]
Symptoms worsen for Dr Benzene and China economy as trade war accelerates
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart is again telling us something very important about the real state of the Chinese economy. It shows Northeast Asian (NEA) benzene pricing spreads over naphtha feedstock costs, (NEA pricing is in effect a China price as of course China dominates the NEA region). Dr Benzene, as with Dr Copper, […]
China PE spreads at seven-year low indicates too many eggs in one basket
By John Richardson CHINA polyethylene (PE) spreads over naphtha feedstock costs are at a seven-year low and I believe that spreads will continue to decline to below their 2012 levels –a year which marked the last major industry profitability downturn (see the above chart). You might want to argue that this has to do with […]
China trade war self-reliance push threatens ethylene glycols and PP imports
By John Richardson CHINA WILL do what suits China and not what suits the rest of the petrochemicals and polymers word. And what suits China has radically changed because of the new US approach to international relations. No longer can China depend on the US, or indeed any other country, for the petrochemicals imports it […]