By John Richardson Temporary factors might be behind the weakness in China’s polyethylene (PE) market that has been highlighted by our colleagues at ICIS pricing. Last week, pricing in China was either flat or declined on bearish sentiment (see the above chart). One temporary factor could be the traditional post-Lunar New Years shortage of workers […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China: No New “Demographic Dividend”
By John Richardson ANOTHER, on the surface, stunning announcement last Friday – along with promises of root and branch economic reforms – was China’s decision to relax its one-child policy. All of these announcements followed the conclusion of last week’s crucial Third Plenum. From now on, couples will be allowed to have two children if […]
The US Needs A Plenum
By John Richardson CHINA’S crucial November plenum has now finished and so far there are no details on policy decisions. All we have had is a brief communiqué, which includes key phrases such as “deepening reform” and “crossing the river by feeling the stones”. This latter phrase underlines our argument that reform will be trial […]
China’s Demographics: What Is Your Contingency Plan?
By John Richardson DEMOGRAPHICS shape demand – everywhere, including in China, as we have been discussing since 2011. Here are a few facts about China’s demographics challenge – from this outstanding Financial Times article by David Pilling – which chemicals company executives need to print out and pin up on their boardroom walls as China heads […]
China’s Auto Demand Growth: No Longer As Predictable
By John Richardson WE used to live in a linear world where GDP growth was nearly always on the increase and there was a very close linkage between the growth in any overall economy and the rise in demand for chemicals and polymers. It’s all about throwing darts at a metaphorical dart board, of course. […]
China’s Polyester Industry And The New Big Picture
Source: ICIS supply and demand database By John Richardson THE polyester chain in China is a good example of the dangers of assuming that the big macroeconomic picture will remain more or less unchanged. Large amounts of purified terepththalic acid (PTA) (see the above chart) and polyester capacity seems to have been added in […]
China’s Healthcare Crisis
Source of picture: The BBC By John Richardson “For Hongxia, 39, life is pretty tough (see the above picture),” writes Martin Patience of the BBC in this excellent story in China’s health crisis. “Her husband, Zhang Yansheng, 41, is in the room next door watching TV. He is suffering from a brain tumour and […]
Everything Is Going To Plan
By John Richardson So far so good – everything is going to plan. The flash Markit/HSBC China Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for May fell to 49.6, slipping under the 50-point level demarcating expansion from contraction for the first since October last year and sending Asian financial markets sharply lower. But, crucially, as Reuters pointed out in this article, […]
China Manufacturing Relocation Accelerates
Source of graph: Standard Chartered By John Richardson WORKING conditions matter as much as higher salaries for China’s emboldened manufacturing workforce, according to this article in the Financial Times. “As the number of available workers falls, factories struggle not only to find new hires, but also retain existing staff. A young and educated workforce […]
Xi Jingping’s Challenges
By John Richardson XI Jinping, who formally became China’s president last week during the National People’s Congress meeting, faces enormous challenges. Life is, for example, pretty grim for hundreds of millions of people in China. Many have lost out on the country’s “economic miracle” because a hugely disproportionate share of the country’s wealth has ended […]
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