By John Richardson IT IS hardly surprising that a hot topic of discussion amongst chemical company CEOS gathered for the American Chemistry Council’s annual meeting in Colorado Springs, the US, was the threat of trade wars. As I have long argued, there is more than a 50% chance that we will end up in a […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Plastics Recycling To Lead The World As Virgin Resin Demand Declines
By John Richardson IT just isn’t logical. There is a lot of excitement in polyethylene (PE) markets about how China’s heavy restrictions on imports of scrap plastic will deliver a permanent boost to imports of virgin PE resins. But plastic waste is in the long term plastic waste, regardless of where it comes from. Sure, […]
Polyethylene Margins Face Collapse On Overcapacity
By John Richardson THE consensus view is that whilst global polyethylene (PE) margins have further to fall from their levels so far in 2018 (see the above chart), they will not get that much worse. It is thought that the PE downcycle will be brief and very shallow because of booming global demand for PE […]
Success And Failure In Polyolefins Redefined By Sustainability
By John Richardson YOU DON’T have to be an oil and gas producer to be successful in polyolefins. Anyone with integration upstream as far as refining is in a strong commercial position. It is also good enough to be integrated from the steam cracker downwards; in fact, more than good enough given the strength of […]
China Aims To End Petrochemicals Imports
By John Richardson CHINA HAS changed its strategy for the petrochemicals and polymers where it is in deficit. Previously, the government accepted China’s position as a major importer. Now the plan is to move into balanced or long positions with any surpluses exported via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Petrochemicals are seen as a […]
Plastic Waste Crisis: Virgin Polymers Growth Will Be Below GDP
By John Richardson AS the demand for transportation fuels declines, oil and refining companies are increasingly viewing petrochemicals as compensation for this lost demand. Their logic is based on the theory that whilst gasoline and diesel consumption is set to fall on sustainability concerns, petrochemicals growth will remain strong. The companies have of course tremendous […]
China’s 74% Fall In High-Risk Lending Points To New Slowdown
By John Richardson THE above chart should give you a feeling of déjà vu. In early 2014, Chinese lending growth started to decline and by September of that year, broad recognition of the extent of the decline was behind a sharp retreat in global commodities prices as the global economy also slowed. History very often […]
China Scrap Plastic Crackdown: 1-2% Boost To Polyolefins Demand
By John Richardson THE DECLINE in China’s imports of scrap or waste plastic and cardboard could boost 2018 virgin polypropylene (PP) consumption in China by some 1% above our base case. Meanwhile, polyethylene (PE) demand may be 2% higher For details on what this would mean in terms of tonnes, subscribe to our monthly Asia […]
Plastic Waste Crisis: How Polymer Company Early Adopters Can Win
Being an “early adopter” is never easy because of cynicism and scepticism. But what choice do we polymer companies have? None, if they really want to protect their revenues. By John Richardson POLYMER companies will lose billions of euros and dollars in revenue unless they react in the right way to the global plastics […]
Four Billion Tonnes of Plastic Waste And Counting: The Threat To Petchems Growth
By John Richardson THE world will have produced a total of 6.9bn tonnes of the 11 synthetic polymers I’ve detailed in the above chart between 1978, when our data begins, and the end of 2017. Using the assumptions behind an important new study that was launched in July this year, let’s assume that 76% of […]
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