By John Richardson THE ABOVE table illustrates the 2018 impact on smaller LLDPE markets of the arrival of big volumes of new US production. Big percentage increases such as these can be misleading when they are from very small bases. But look at it from this angle: Vietnam, Turkey, Malaysia, Thailand and Taiwan, province of […]
Asian Chemical Connections
You must not assume a Goldilocks oil price in 2019 – not too hot, not cold
By John Richardson TIME AND again people get oil markets wrong because they entirely focus on the physical supply and demand of the black stuff whilst ignoring the pivotal role that financial speculators play in driving prices higher or lower. Since 2000, futures speculation has greatly increased because of regulatory liberalisation, as I wrote in […]
Asian PE margins to test 2012 lows as consensus catches up with economic realities
By John Richardson IT HAS been evident since as early as February this year that China’s economy is slowing down. But once again, as in 2014, companies and investors have overlooked the key indicator of a slowdown: The sharp decline in credit availability, particularly via China’s shadow banking system. “Not to worry,” I can hear […]
Scenario 1 inevitable? Are you really, really, hand on heart, that sure?
ICIS and the UK–based chemicals company International eChem had the privilege of making a presentation during the Knowledge Sharing Partners event at last month’s GPCA Forum in Dubai. The conference was organised by our excellent ICIS Conferences team. Please click this link for a copy of our slides: ICISConsultingPresentationGPCA2018 If you would like to further discuss […]
Donald Trump’s “Tariff Man” Tweet exposes lack of G20 substance
By John Richardson That didn’t last long, did it? But anyone paying attention to the detail, or rather the lack of it from the Chinese perspective, would have known as early as Sunday morning Asian time that the G20 deal wasn’t a deal at all. It was just an agreement to start talking again. The […]
G20 meeting: stakes are high for US petchems, manufacturing in general
By John Richardson YOU CAN make an argument that President Trump’s trade policies are good for SMEs that have lost out to China over the last 20 years. But even for some SMEs that source their raw materials from China, the trade war risks causing major damage. Take the example of Colombia Sportswear of Portland, […]
Latest global chemicals production data indicate recession likely very close
By John Richardson ONE OF THE useful things about chemicals industry data is that they are an early indicator of macroeconomic trends because chemicals are of course the raw materials for so many finished goods. If demand for chemicals rises this serves as an early indicator of stronger sales of TVs, smartphones, autos, computers and […]
Complacency, LLDPE and plastic waste: A collapse in demand
By John Richardson THE TECHNICAL people, those with PHDs in polymer science who have also spent years in application development work, will tell you it is simply impossible to find other materials that perform as well as LLDPE. Multi-layer LLDPE films are vital in applications such as wrapping food, they argue, thanks to excellent barrier properties. […]
Iran-China PE trade and the sanctions: short term dip but long term big increase
By John Richardson IRANIAN exports of PE to China will likely suffer a temporary decline because of financing and logistics problems resulting from the new US sanctions against Iran. The US dollar now needs to be entirely avoided with trade needing to migrate to the yuan, the euro and other currencies. And as my ICIS […]
Major crude downside and upside risks for petchems
By John Richardson ONE of the biggest risks for petrochemicals producers has once again become oil prices as we enter a period of weaker demand and longer supply versus the potential for a major geopolitical disruption to supply. Crude prices could easily rise to more than $100/bbl on a geopolitical clash between the US and […]