By John Richardson NO one-size-fits-all technological solution to the climate change and plastic waste crises is likely to work. What we will instead very probably see is a patchwork of solutions across regions and countries. This will be combined with what I believe must be common global regulatory approaches that everyone adheres to. I cannot […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Petrochemical market confusion set to continue as China deflation approaches
By John Richardson OFFERING clear guidance to petrochemicals investors and other stakeholders remains incredibly difficult in this environment. What happens next has probably never been as uncertain, making it difficult for producers to provide concrete projections for the rest of 2021 following an excellent Q1. At the heart of the problem remains whether demand in […]
China PP and styrene Q1 apparent demand seems to indicate slowdown
By John Richardson WE MUST BE careful here. If 2020 taught is anything, it is that China has the capability of stunning everybody with the speed of its economic growth, even against a backdrop of a much slower global economy. Few people imagined, including myself, that in the dark days of March last year, China […]
China quarter-on-quarter data finally confirms loss of growth momentum
By John Richardson WE WILL CONTINUE to stumble around in the dark unless we gain a much better understanding of the new variables that are shaping the petrochemicals business. As I’ve been discussing since last August, one of the grey areas is demand and how it has been reshaped by the pandemic, on top of […]
Global supply chain disruptions may maintain, or even add to, regional petchem imbalances
By John Richardson THE GLOBAL petrochemicals business looks set to remain largely in the dark about what will happen next to container freight and semiconductor supply. This a new area of risk for producers and buyers that highlights the need for much better analysis and data on the pandemic’s impact on markets. Let me begin […]
China threatens to shift global petrochemicals from inflation to deflation as self-sufficiency increases
By John Richardson POLYPROPYLENE (PP) producers in Europe and the US are making very good money as the slide below shows, detailing LPG-based variable cost margins. In Asia, where margins have long lagged behind the other two regions, profitability has also picked up. Demand isn’t going to be the problem Part of the explanation is […]
China government focus changes to reigning in credit, controlling debts
By John Richardson CHINESE government statements have always been incredibly important for fathoming the country’s economic direction and this year will be no exception. We need to constantly parse the tone of statements to sense changes in direction. “The current complex and severe international environment have added new uncertainties, the domestic economic recovery is not […]
Petrochemicals demand and the pandemic: we continue to stumble around in the dark
By John Richardson THE BIGGEST UNKNOWN out there remains whether petrochemicals and polymers demand will be stronger, the same or weaker post-pandemic than during the pandemic in the developed markets plus China. We seem to be getting no closer to any answers. This matters from a hard-hearted dollars and cents perspective because the developed markets […]
China early data points to 42% fall in 2021 HDPE imports
By John Richardson China’s high-density polyethylene (HDPE) imports in 2021 look as if they might collapse versus last year, according to the early data for this year (see the above chart). The same could apply to polypropylene (PP) and styrene monomer (SM) imports, as I discussed earlier this week. The potential 40% decline in HDPE […]
China early data point to PP imports collapsing by 78% this year with SM 67% lower
By John Richardson CHINA’S apparent demand for polyethylene, polypropylene (PP), styrene monomer (SM) and paraxylene fell during the first two months of this year versus November-December 2020. I have yet to crunch the data on the rest of the major products, but I suspect the trend will be the same. (This comparison is the only […]