John Richardson SOMETIMES you can forget what you already know. This was the case in March when I was speculating that Chinese petrochemicals and polymers production might be lower than we had anticipated before COVID-19. Not so according to a very good colleague in China and some of my industry contacts. They have pointed out […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Global PP demand in 2020 faces two potential major downsides
By John Richardson THE GOOD news might be that some 30% of global PP demand is into packaging applications, and, as we all know, single-use packaging demand has seen a major consumption boom as a result of panic buying in supermarkets. But the bad news is that nobody has come up with an explanation […]
China economy faces huge headwinds with negative full-year growth an inevitability
By John Richardson FRIDAY 17 April is the day when we will get the official Chinese GDP figure for Q1. If it is better than had been anticipated by analysts, the number will have a positive effect on financial markets. But be warned that this doesn’t necessarily mean that in the real, physical world of […]
Modest rebound in oil prices on output cut reflects unprecedented scale of demand loss
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t warn you. It has been clear since early April that no amount of production cutbacks could reverse the weakness in oil markets. And sure enough, despite the 10m barrel a day OPEC+ reduction in output agreed over the weekend – the biggest cutback in the history of the […]
Focus of petchems business must be on meeting medical and food needs
By John Richardson SEVERAL contacts have said to me over the last two weeks that increased medical and food security demand for petrochemicals is a distraction from coming to terms with the huge collapse in demand for all of our products that go into the durable goods which people are no longer buying. I agree […]
Be very, very cautious about buying into the idea of a Q2 crude price rally
By John Richardson IT IS the unprecedented nature of the demand shock that’s the thing, regardless of how much Saudi Arabia and Russia might cut crude production. In the old world, big production cutbacks would often result in a sustained rise in oil prices. But that was when there was normal demand. With some 3bn […]
China: temper your expectations of a H2 recovery for supply as well as demand reasons
By John Richardson CHINA IS gradually getting back to work, but only gradually because the government is trying to carefully calibrate the release of tens of millions of people from quarantine without triggering a second wave of infections. The way that China has tackled the disease has been nothing short of heroic. Small and medium-sized […]
Vital work to maintain petrochemicals supply for essential services must continue
By John Richardson INDUSTRY associations around the world are lobbying governments about the importance of the petrochemical industry for vital services beyond just the obvious production of hygiene products, face masks, pill bottles and disposable plastic bed sheets etc. This vital work needs to continue as the petrochemicals business is not fully understood by many […]
Polyethylene: How to plan sensibly as we face threat of new Global Depression
By John Richardson I SINCERELY want to help you guys. That’s what I am here for. To this end, here is another warning not to heed what I believe is wrong advice about the polyethylene (PE) demand being to some extent immune from an economic crisis that Bruno Le Maire, France’s finance minister, yesterday said […]
Container freight shortages will lead to regional petrochemicals trade and supply shortages
By John Richardson THIS excellent chart highlights the lingering effects of the coronavirus outbreak in China on the global container freight industry. Now, because the crisis has gone global, we must expect the disruptions to intensify: Many containers will be stuck in the wrong places, unable to find cargoes to move to where they are […]