By John Richardson IT IS always useful to develop a good plan and then effectively implement the plan. China appears to have been successful in both these respects in 2020 and this has been of great benefit to the global petrochemicals business. If only this were the case with all other countries. Without the plan, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Why history, culture and politics will give you the petrochemicals answers you need
By John Richardson ALBERT EINSTEIN knew a thing or two about data, including searching for entirely new data sets that led to a revolution in our understanding of space and time. Nevertheless, he once wrote this on a blackboard: “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts.” Hear, […]
No change in China’s policies seem likely under a Biden and Harris White House
By John Richardson WE NEED to talk about politics without being political – a very difficult task, but an essential one if we are to be dispassionate as humanly possible in our analysis, and thus produce worthwhile analysis. If we are not dispassionate, we end up shouting at each other; and when anyone shouts, nobody […]
Vaccines, petrochemicals demand and a much more complex world
By John Richardson WE DIDN’T used to require expert knowledge of vaccines, epidemiology, political science and the impact of social media on human behaviour if we wanted to forecast petrochemicals demand, to name but a few of the many new disciplines that have now become essential. All we had to do was take IMF or […]
China’s booming polypropylene demand in 2020 and what could happen next year
By John Richardson IT has been a year that just about nobody in the Asian polypropylene (PP) industry had expected back in the dark days of April. At that time, negative demand growth in China during 2020 seemed a strong possibility. What instead has taken place is a solid recovery in the Chinese economy following […]
Politics and petrochemicals: Fifth Plenum review and the US elections
By John Richardson The rather dull and very short formal government communique that was released after the end of China’s 26-29 October Fifth Plenum should not lead you to conclude that nothing of great importance happened during this Chinese Communist Party meeting. What you should instead still conclude, as I have been highlighting since September, […]
Global polyethylene markets: What’s happened in 2020 and an outlook for next year
By John Richardson HERE is your essential cut-out-and-keep summary of what has happened in global polyethylene (PE) markets in 2020 and your guide to what I believe will happen next year. The first two sections will review demand in the developed world and China and the rest of the developing world. These sections will also […]
Why China’s polyethylene imports could be either 22m tonnes or 3m tonnes in 2030
By John Richardson THERE are so many angles to this that, as with the potential outcomes of the US presidential election, China’s Fifth Plenum is worth many acres of newsprint. The plenum is taking place on 26-29 October, whereas, as everyone bar the odd Martian knows, the US election is on 3 November. The plenum […]
China rapid rebound promises another great year for petchems, but beware of the fault lines
By John Richardson IT helped immensely that as the rest of the world was shutting down, China’s factories were coming back on stream. This allowed China to corner global markets for face masks, other personal protective equipment and pharmaceuticals. What was also a big plus for China was that it already had large global stakes […]
Plastic rubbish: the pandemic is increasing rather than reducing the pressure for change
This is the first of a series of blog posts where I will examine the environmental paradigm shift and what it means for the petrochemicals industry. This first post deals with the bottom end of the value chain, the plastic packaging business, and the pressure being exerted upward on petrochemicals producers to change how they […]