There comes a moment in a debate when the argument is clearly won, and discussion moves on to practical issues of implementation. We can see that process in action this week, following a major analysis in Barrons, the leading US investment magazine. Titled ‘The Snail Economy’, its core argument is summed up in the chart […]
Chemicals and the Economy
A little bit of China stimulus goes a long way in housing
It was only a “mini-stimulus” that was delivered by China’s new leaders in July. Well, thank goodness it wasn’t more, to judge by the above chart from Albert Edwards at SocGen. It shows how house price inflation has jumped in 69 of China’s 70 main cities between March and September: In March (orange column) inflation […]
Lessons from Grangemouth – how Europe can revive its industrial base
Sometimes a crisis can concentrate minds on one key issue. This was certainly the case last week, when the blog was part of the tense debate over the future of the INEOS petrochemical plant at Grangemouth, Scotland involving the UK and Scottish governments, INEOS and the UNITE union. The experience highlighted some critical learnings for the future of […]
China’s polyester market warns of demand weakness ahead
Something very important seems to be happening in China’s polyester’s markets. The blog was brought up on these markets in its early days with ICI, when it was part of the team that launched PTA into Asian markets for the first time in the mid-1980s. It has always seen them as a source of steady growth, with […]
Budgeting for a VUCA world
“I use the term VUCA to describe the world – volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous. It is very difficult for people to get a total picture.” Paul Polman, Unilever CEO The title for the 2013 Budget Outlook chooses itself. If the CEO of Unilever, one of the world’s great companies, can’t get a “total picture”, […]
India’s onion harvest boosts auto sales: Japan’s sales gently decline
The blog’s pre-Budget Outlook review of the major auto markets concludes today with Japan and India. Together they are 10% of the global market. But their development is an excellent example of how reality can overtake the wishful thinking of policymakers: Japan (red line) is the larger market. It has lived through countless government stimulus […]
US auto market driven by used car sales trends
September wasn’t such a good month for US auto sales, as the chart shows. It was the first time since May 2011 that sales were below those of the same month in the previous year. Was this just a blip, explained by the fact that August was strong due to Labor Day being very early in […]
Grangemouth closure could force downstream converters to shut
One never wants to see a major petchem plant shutdown, especially one with the history of Grangemouth in Scotland. It is the UK’s largest cracker site, with ethylene capacity of 1 million tonnes. Its production has a sale value of $1bn ($1.6bn), and a final value in food packaging, consumer packaging and automotive parts of […]
European auto markets head in a new direction
The European auto market continues at 20-year lows, with sales down 4% in January – September. Whilst September’s sales appeared stronger, up 5% versus 2012, this was only due to Spain and the UK. Spain boosted volume by 10k due to a €2.7k ($3.7k) government hand-out for people trading in an older vehicle. Whilst UK volumes were up 40k due to a credit […]
China’s auto sales rise as bank lending booms
Autos are now the largest single manufacturing industry in the world. Not only do they directly and indirectly employ vast numbers of people, but they are also increasingly key to consumer spending. Thus it is no surprise that governments have tried to increase auto sales since the Crisis began in 2008. China is the prime example of […]
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