By John Richardson POLITICIANS, not just including the Populist variety, are talking a lot about reshoring or bringing back home manufacturing supply chains in response to the coronavirus pandemic. This is partly because China’s shutdown of its manufacturing capacity in February and early March made legislators wake up to the world’s heavy reliance on China […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Beware of the fragile nature of the oil and petrochemical price recovery
By John Richardson RECENT rises in oil and petrochemicals prices should not in my view be taken as a signal that the worst phase of the coronavirus crisis is over. Please, please be careful out there. The extent of the rebound in crude should be a cause for concern given the state of supply and […]
China petrochemical inventories build on what could be false hopes of a V-shaped rebound
By John Richardson AS PETROCHEMICALS storage space in China fills up on the hope that the country can lead the world in economic recovery, here are some important statistics for you to consider: 91% of the more than 500 Chinese companies surveyed by the China Beige Book had reopened by late April, but only 42% […]
Further polyethylene rate cuts seem inevitable with no certainty on who will blink first
By John Richardson IT IS NOT just a razor-like focus on petrochemicals demand that will get you through the crisis. Also essential is an equally close focus on production in a world where all the old assumptions about winners and losers have been turned upside down. But, as with demand, monitoring and forecasting production has […]
Why Asia may win and the US lose in post-virus petchems investment world
As always, these are my personal views and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson IT IS A polyethylene (PE) world turned upside down which, in my view, will remain upside down. With oil prices set to stay around $30/bbl over the long term, the US ethane advantage is in my opinion pretty […]
China recovery appears to lose steam as PE and PP self-sufficiency increases
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I did not warn you. The post-coronavirus recovery in China is already losing steam in April after a rebound in activity in March, according to this Bloomberg article. Domestic consumer sentiment is weak and export orders have collapsed as a result of the global pandemic, according to the wire service, […]
Post-coronavirus world: How China could end up in a stronger position
These are, always, my views only and not the views of ICIS Here is another of attempt at long-term crystal-ball gazing where I again try to imagine the petrochemicals landscape in the post-coronavirus 2025 world. My earlier post had looked at the rise of sustainability and affordability that could work in parallel with the emergence […]
Ways of dealing with COVID-19 don’t have to be rocket science
By John Richardson IT IS all about getting through the next 12 months with minimal damage whilst preparing for what the New Normal will look like when the COVID-19 crisis is over. I believe that changes in the nature of demand will be accelerated by the virus. These changes were already well underway before this […]
China PP imports: Two scenarios showing downside risks for 2020
John Richardson SOMETIMES you can forget what you already know. This was the case in March when I was speculating that Chinese petrochemicals and polymers production might be lower than we had anticipated before COVID-19. Not so according to a very good colleague in China and some of my industry contacts. They have pointed out […]
Global PP demand in 2020 faces two potential major downsides
By John Richardson THE GOOD news might be that some 30% of global PP demand is into packaging applications, and, as we all know, single-use packaging demand has seen a major consumption boom as a result of panic buying in supermarkets. But the bad news is that nobody has come up with an explanation […]