By John Richardson YOU have had more than 12 months to prepare for a global trade war that is becoming ever-more likely, almost by the day. This would lead to a new global recession given the shaky nature of today’s “economic recovery”. President Trump overnight Asia time announced plans for a further $100bn of tariffs […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Polyethylene: Inland Growth And Internet Sales Versus Threat From Sustainability
By John Richardson THE ABOVE CHART uses the same approach I used in late February for my post on per capita polypropylene consumption in China. In this case, my focus is on polyethylene (PE): The latest available IMF data for per capita income levels by province and other administrative region in China is for 2016 […]
Stock Markets: Real Implications For Petchems and Risks Of A “Cynical Bubble”
By John Richardson WHEN stock markets are rising, the proverbial garden can look as if it is blooming with summer flowers without a weed in sight. But the underlying data suggest wealth inequality is still a major issue in the US, with the inequality creating iconoclastic politics in the US that continue to threaten a […]
Plastic Waste Crisis: How Polymer Company Early Adopters Can Win
Being an “early adopter” is never easy because of cynicism and scepticism. But what choice do we polymer companies have? None, if they really want to protect their revenues. By John Richardson POLYMER companies will lose billions of euros and dollars in revenue unless they react in the right way to the global plastics […]
How To Replace Billions Of Dollars Of Polymer Sales Lost To New Recycling Rules
By John Richardson THE EU’s requirement that all plastics packaging must be recyclable by 2030 will result in billions of dollars in lost sales across the 28 members of the EU. To give you an example, my preliminary guesstimate suggests that some €6bn of EU sales could be lost in LLDPE alone in the 12 […]
Global Economy In 2018: Stimulus Withdrawal Threatens Complacent Outlook
By John Richardson IN TODAY’S world of soar-away stock markets backed up by the notion that the sustained global economic recovery will not be derailed in 2018, there is a need to detail the major risks out there. Today’s post will look at the risks posed by the withdrawal of Western and Chinese central bank […]
China Environment Campaign Creates Global Inflation Threat
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart shows the major role that China has played in driving global inflation, deflation – and now inflation again – since 2008. There is a close link between the movements in China’s Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Indices (CPIs) in the Eurozone, the US and the UK. The […]
How US Could Be Squeezed Out Of Europe’s Polyethylene Market
By John Richardson EARLIER this year a commonly held view was that globalisation would slip into reverse gear with the very real prospect of a global trade war. But this view didn’t take into account China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, the launch of which predated the election of Donald Trump as US president […]
Global Economy Is Less Able To Withstand A New Oil Price Shock
By John Richardson HISTORY has a tendency to move very slowly, inching forward incrementally, and then all of a sudden a flurry of events over an incredibly short space of time can change everything. This is where we are today. Oil prices had been creeping up long before the 4 November launch of the anti-corruption […]
Crude Oil Prices In 2018: Impact On Naphtha-Based Polyethylene
By John Richardson I WILL explain the full significance of the above charts for the Asian and global polyethylene (PE) industries later on this is post. In short here, though, a great deal hinges on next year’s oil prices, with the possibility that there is more momentum left in today’s rally. And of course […]