By John Richardson WHEN is over-investment a good thing? This was another question the blog was left pondering after a good conversation with a Beijing-based training delegate during ICIS Training’s recent China Seminar in Bangkok. She made the point that China builds roads, bridges and railways, which ends up “seeding” or developing demand in less-developed […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The US Needs A Plenum
By John Richardson CHINA’S crucial November plenum has now finished and so far there are no details on policy decisions. All we have had is a brief communiqué, which includes key phrases such as “deepening reform” and “crossing the river by feeling the stones”. This latter phrase underlines our argument that reform will be trial […]
Life After The “Sugar High”: Oil Prices And Petrochemicals
By John Richardson WHY is it that even though demand in the US for petrochemicals is still well below the 2007 peak, as indicated by the latest American Chemistry Council capacity utilisation chart, the November ICIS Petrochemical (IPEX) for the US shows pricing at such elevated levels? (see the charts below). “Never mind,” one might […]
China’s Demographics: What Is Your Contingency Plan?
By John Richardson DEMOGRAPHICS shape demand – everywhere, including in China, as we have been discussing since 2011. Here are a few facts about China’s demographics challenge – from this outstanding Financial Times article by David Pilling – which chemicals company executives need to print out and pin up on their boardroom walls as China heads […]
South Korea’s Demographic Challenges
By John Richardson THE blog has been long on South Korea ever since its first visit in 1997. Its economic achievements since the horrors of the Korean War are nothing short of amazing. Bereft of natural resources, all it has had to rely has been its intellectual capital and, wow, look at how it has […]
US Housing Recovery? What Recovery?
By John Richardson A SUSTAINED US housing recovery is vital for the global petrochemicals industry because, without it, far too much of the 64% of ethylene capacity, which is due to be added in the States, will have to be exported in the form of derivatives. One of the reasons is that some $16,000 […]
Searching For A Manufacturing Revival
By John Richardson WALK into any airport bookshop and you will see shelf after shelf full of management and “get rich quick” books. How many books are you likely to see on inventing things and manufacturing? Hardly any….. The danger is that whilst we busy ourselves with pouring spurious knowledge into our heads about how […]
Grangemouth Viewed Through A Wider Lens
By John Richardson THROUGH the narrow lens of stand-alone cost competitiveness, the threatened refinery and petrochemicals complex in Grangemouth, Scotland the UK, (see picture) can be viewed as having a very questionable long-term future. For example, Britain’s refineries are viewed as small, old and lacking in sophistication. And it can be argued that they are […]
China’s Debt Crisis Comes To A Head
By John Richardson HOW much longer will China’s central government continue to kick the can down the road? The answer to this question might well turn out to be the biggest single determinant of chemicals and polymers demand growth over the next few years. When the great rebalancing really kicks in, the wind could be […]
Germany’s Long-term Economic Challenges
Source of graph: Eurostat By John Richardson AS delegates gather for this year’s European Petrochemical Association (EPCA) meeting in Berlin, which takes place on 5-9 October, it might be tempting to believe that Europe has turned the corner. Supporting this argument has been the release of lots of positive economy data recently. For example, […]
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