By John Richardson THERE is no other country or even region in the world that comes anywhere close to being as important to the global polymers industry as China, as the above chart reminds us. From end-2017 until the end of 2021 in seven of the major synthetic resins – PE, PP, PS, EPS, ABS, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
US styrene another petchems sector at risk from trade war
By John Richardson THE US decision to pick a fight with China over trade and geopolitical influence could backfire very badly from the perspective of new US investments in petrochemicals capacity – most notably polyethylene (PE) and ethylene glycols (EG). The data tell is that many billions of dollars of investments in new plants will […]
Middle East, India, SEA petchems winners in new trading blocs
By John Richardson JACK MA, the founder of Alibaba, said of the US/China trade war, “It’s going to last a long time, maybe 20 years. It’s going to be a mess. It’s not a trade war, it’s about competition between two countries.” I believe that the world is set to be split into two trading blocs, […]
How Lehman Bros reshaped China and the global PE business
By John Richardson MOST of the analysis on the tenth anniversary of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) focuses on the effects on Western economies and societies. Economic inequality has risen since 2008 resulting in the rise of populist politics, is a very common theme. But almost entirely overlooked is the huge effect that the GFC […]
US ethylene glycols: The Cost Of Exclusion From China
By John Richardson IF THE US were unable to export ethylene glycols (EG) to China the economic logic of US capacity expansions would face major challenges. Between 2018 and 2025, China will account for no less than 84% of global net imports (imports minus exports) amongst the major importing regions and countries. (For those who […]
PE Margins Fall As Trade War Threatens Two Entirely Separate Trading Blocks
By John Richardson LET’S FIRST of all take a close look at what the above chart is telling us about the damage already done to polyethylene (PE) margins before considering what could happen next. US high-density PE (HDPE) margins are 47% lower in the year-to-date versus to 2017 and low-density (LDPE) margins are 45% lower. […]
Increasing Risks Of Financial Crisis By End-Year
A sign that the central bank “put option” has come to an end By John Richardson EVER since 2008 there has been been a fantastic “put option” which has made the fortunes of many financial and commodity market investors. This involved assuming that every time bad economic news emerged, central banks would ramp-up economic stimulus. […]
Six More Years Of America First: Implications For Global Petchems
By John Richardson DESPITE all the criticism surrounding President Trump’s handling of the Helsinki summit, 79% of Republican voters said that they approved of how he handled his meeting with President Putin, according to Axios/SurveyMonkey. The Wall Street Journal also reports that in 1992, 15 of the 20 most manufacturing intensive Congressional districts in America […]
Prepare For A More Regionalised, Fragmented Polymers World
By John Richardson THE above map global shows our base-case forecasts for global trade flows of HDPE, LLDPE and PP in 2025. It is the result of lots of hard work and smart thinking around feedstock costs, logistics costs and demand growth etc. and is a good start to your scenario planning process. The map […]
US-China Trade War To Accelerate As Restrictions On US Petchem Exports Increase
By John Richardson TAKE a broader view of US-China trading relationship and the picture looks very different from the straightforward, headline big US deficit, as James Kynge points out in this important article in the FT. It is the presence of US companies in China that also matters. The most recent data, which is for […]
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