The views below are my own, and, as always, do not express the opinion of ICIS By John Richardson REGARDLESS of your politics you should worry about Donald Trump’s claim that the trade war is hurting the Chinese economy and that the US is therefore winning. For reasons I shall is explain in this post, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
President Trump’s tariff concession adds to uncertainties as we drift towards a bipolar world
The following opinions are my personal views, and, as always, do not express the views of ICIS By John Richardson PRESIDENT TRUMP could have blinked at the prospect of Christmas shoppers punishing him at the ballot box for the increased cost of gifts beneath their trees. This is what I think is behind his decision […]
China PE overstocking at above a million tonnes as Beijing struggles to boost economy
By John Richardson EVEN IF our base case growth rate* for PE in China in 2019 proves to be correct the H1 data still suggest excess inventories of 755,000 tonnes (click here for a post explaining the methodology). As the China economy further decelerates due to the trade war and domestic economic problems, I believe […]
Multiple trade disputes and the risks for the US PE industry
By John Richardson FALLING out with a trading partner as big as China is problematic enough. But the US is also out of sorts with the EU, India and Turkey and is at risk of ending up in a dispute with Vietnam. The row with China is far from being resolved despite the G20 truce. […]
US LLDPE imports and the impact on European petrochemicals
By John Richardson EUROPEAN linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) markets have yet to feel the full effect of the big increase in US production in 2019. One of the reasons is that some Middle East material that should have gone to Europe was diverted to China in January-April. Netbacks to China were stronger because Chinese […]
Southeast Asia PE spreads further underline weak demand, but trade talks promise rebound
By John Richardson THE GOOD news today is that the US and China have agreed to resume trade talks. Presidents Trump and Xi are also scheduled to meet at the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, on Saturday – 29 June – to discuss the trade dispute. If a trade deal is done, or at the […]
Global polyethylene: Supply is not the problem, it is demand
By John Richardson WHEN people talk about supply it is very often because it is much easier to quantify than demand when, in fact, it is demand that’s the real problem. This is the case today in the global polyethylene (PE) market where the focus is on the big slug of new US supply hitting […]
China’s polyethylene demand in 2019 now at risk as slowdown gathers momentum
By John Richardson JUST when most of us thought we had figured out China’s polyethylene (PE) market, its ambiguities and complexities could again be about to come back and bite us. I am beginning to think that 2019 demand growth may not be as robust as I had thought would be the case only two weeks […]
China PP demand at risk of 20 million tonnes shortfall in 2019-2025
By John Richardson THE CHANCES of some kind of trade deal have edged a little higher following the announcement that President Trump will have an extended meeting with President Xi at the G20 meeting in Japan later this month. They will not just pass each other in the corridor and shake hands during a group […]
China real estate a growing stress point for global chemicals demand
By John Richardson WE ALL know, or at least we all should know, just how important is the Chinese economy to the global economy. Assume significantly weaker-than-consensus Chinese demand growth in everything from base chemicals to autos, smartphones and TVs, and there is no statistical basis for believing that strong growth in other regions can […]