By John Richardson BY PLAYING with fire President Trump has very likely set the forest on fire. Today’s decision by the White House decision to declare China a currency manipulator makes a global recession even more likely than it was yesterday, when I discussed the negative economic results of the president’s plan to levy […]
Asian Chemical Connections
As trade talks resume make sure your expectations are very low
By John Richardson DON’T BUILD your mind up over this week’s US/China trade talk as major breakthroughs seem very unlikely. One reason is that we have in effect entered the next presidential election season even though the primaries don’t begin until early next year. President Trump has nothing to gain and everything to lose on […]
BASF’s shocking Q2 results should have been no shock at all
y John Richardson NOBODY should be surprised by the BASF results for Q1 2019 where, on a year-on-year basis, EBIT was down by 71%. This was largely because of events in China. The roots of these very poor results, with many more likely to follow from other chemicals companies, can be traced back to H1 […]
China PE overstocking at nearly a million tonnes as demand weakens, competition intensifies
By John Richardson MEASURING petrochemicals and polymer inventory levels in China with any reasonable degree of accuracy is an impossible task. Nobody can quite obviously count every single plastic pallet in every warehouse up and down China’s vast distribution chains. Sinopec and PetroChina do, however, report their inventory levels. This is at least something and […]
President Trump’s Vietnam warning threatens more polyethylene disruptions
Just to stress that, as always, what follows are my own personal views and not those of ICIS By John Richardson DON’T say I didn’t warn you. Three weeks ago I said that Vietnam could well be dragged into the trade war. “A lot of companies are moving to Vietnam, but Vietnam takes advantage of […]
US LLDPE imports and the impact on European petrochemicals
By John Richardson EUROPEAN linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) markets have yet to feel the full effect of the big increase in US production in 2019. One of the reasons is that some Middle East material that should have gone to Europe was diverted to China in January-April. Netbacks to China were stronger because Chinese […]
Southeast Asia PE spreads further underline weak demand, but trade talks promise rebound
By John Richardson THE GOOD news today is that the US and China have agreed to resume trade talks. Presidents Trump and Xi are also scheduled to meet at the G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, on Saturday – 29 June – to discuss the trade dispute. If a trade deal is done, or at the […]
Global polyethylene: Supply is not the problem, it is demand
By John Richardson WHEN people talk about supply it is very often because it is much easier to quantify than demand when, in fact, it is demand that’s the real problem. This is the case today in the global polyethylene (PE) market where the focus is on the big slug of new US supply hitting […]
China’s polyethylene demand in 2019 now at risk as slowdown gathers momentum
By John Richardson JUST when most of us thought we had figured out China’s polyethylene (PE) market, its ambiguities and complexities could again be about to come back and bite us. I am beginning to think that 2019 demand growth may not be as robust as I had thought would be the case only two weeks […]
China PP demand at risk of 20 million tonnes shortfall in 2019-2025
By John Richardson THE CHANCES of some kind of trade deal have edged a little higher following the announcement that President Trump will have an extended meeting with President Xi at the G20 meeting in Japan later this month. They will not just pass each other in the corridor and shake hands during a group […]