By John Richardson IT just isn’t logical. There is a lot of excitement in polyethylene (PE) markets about how China’s heavy restrictions on imports of scrap plastic will deliver a permanent boost to imports of virgin PE resins. But plastic waste is in the long term plastic waste, regardless of where it comes from. Sure, […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China Overlooked Lending Data Down 64% As Economic Slowdown Continues
By John Richardson FAR too little attention is still being paid to China’s lending data even though this has long been the key measure of whether its economy is accelerating or slowing down. In January 2014, lending in China started to slow down as China’s recently appointed president, Xi Jinping, exerted his authority. At that […]
US-China Trade Dispute: Pause For Breath Does Not Mean End In Sight
By John Richardson Confused? You might well be if you’ve read the news reports following the US-China trade meeting in Washington last week. The immediate threat of a trade war looks as if it has been averted. China’s top envoy at the trade talks, Liu He, said that both sides had agreed for the time […]
China Emerges As Winner In New Multipolar World
By John Richardson TODAY’S headline should be written on your petrochemicals company boardroom wall, in several inch-high capital letters, and should then be used as the basis for a deep discussion about the consequences of this outcome for your business. You should then build scenarios around how this would change investment strategies and trade flows. […]
Iran Nuclear Decision Further Threat To US Polyethylene Exports
By John Richardson DONALD TRUMP’S decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, combined with the increasing likelihood of a US-China trade war, risks pushing the US polyethylene (PE) industry out in the cold. The above chart illustrates the US industry’s already difficult position in 2017 compared with ten years earlier. In all three […]
Unavoidable US-China Trade War: Implications For Polyethylene
By John Richardson A US-CHINA trade war has become much more likely following the negotiations that took place in Beijing last week. A compromise might of course still be struck, but the signs are not good. If a trade war breaks out, China would perhaps follow through on its threat to impose 25% tariffs on […]
Why US-China Talks May So Easily Fail To Avert Trade War
By John Richardson CHINA might still be in a race against time to achieve enough levels of innovation to escape its middle-income trap. This could mean that it has no choice but to reach a deal with the US on trade that gives it continued access to US intellectual property. Such a deal would avert […]
US-China Trade War: Global Recession, Collapse Of Polyethylene Markets
By John Richardson YOU have had more than 12 months to prepare for a global trade war that is becoming ever-more likely, almost by the day. This would lead to a new global recession given the shaky nature of today’s “economic recovery”. President Trump overnight Asia time announced plans for a further $100bn of tariffs […]
Plastic Waste Crisis: How Polymer Company Early Adopters Can Win
Being an “early adopter” is never easy because of cynicism and scepticism. But what choice do we polymer companies have? None, if they really want to protect their revenues. By John Richardson POLYMER companies will lose billions of euros and dollars in revenue unless they react in the right way to the global plastics […]
The Battle To Retain Metallocene Polyethylene Price Premiums
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart could be a sign of a long term trend where we see metallocene linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) price premiums over standard, or C4 grade, LLDPE film at lower levels. We have already seen C6 metallocene premiums in Southeast Asia slip ever so slightly to an average of $113/tonne from […]