Note that all the comparisons in this post are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart, completing my analysis of supply and demand for China’s major petrochemicals and polymers in January-July, seems to indicate nothing much to be concerned about. If only the future were the same. What you […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Vaccine hopes versus reality and the implications for petrochemicals
By John Richardson THE WONDERFUL poet, T.S. Eliot, wrote “humankind cannot bear very much reality”. One of the realities that I believe many us have failed to come to terms with is that an effective coronavirus vaccine isn’t just a few months away, but is instead several years away. I believe we will eventually get […]
Why a new stimulus deal could be critical for US polyethylene demand
By John Richardson GOVERNMENT stimulus is crucial for protecting polyethylene (PE) markets in the West from the worst effects of the pandemic, in my opinion. The developing world is a different story because of the rise of extreme poverty. There are other factors behind the resilience of PE demand the US and the EU such […]
Why a hard look at the data show China has not seen a V-shaped recovery
Note: All the data comparisons below are year-on-year By John Richardson IF YOU closely study H1 data on China petrochemical imports and production, combine this with full-year demand-growth forecasts, talk to market participants and add in the macro data there is in my view only one conclusion: China has not […]
China polyolefins market H1 review: so far so good, but beware of the risks ahead
By John Richardson ALL looks fine in the polyolefins world. The Old Normal appears to have reasserted itself as Chinese demand has come roaring back. (Note that all the following numbers are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated.) H1 2020 data shows that polyethylene (PE) apparent demand (net imports plus local production) grew by […]
Why the polypropylene industry must switch from volumes to value
By John Richardson EVERYONE knows about the oversupply in the polyethylene (PE) market as it has been discussed in more presentations and conferences than any of have had hot dinners. But less understood is the extent of oversupply in the global polypropylene (PP) business, which you can see from the above chart on the left. […]
China consulate closure underlines long-term split with US, potential big shift in petchems trade flows
The views in this blog post are, as always, my personal views and do not reflect the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson A VIEW often expressed is that if Joe Biden wins the US presidential election in November, relationships between the US and China will greatly improve. I believe, though, that the […]
Asian polyethylene price recovery faces multiple challenges
By John Richardson THERE are reports of significant cuts in Middle East polyethylene (PE) operating rates because of reduced availability of associated ethane gas feedstock, the result of lower oil output. Combine this with the official Chinese government narrative of a strong recovery in the local economy, along with the emergence of much of the […]
China’s long-term ambition for paraxylene self-sufficiency seems close to being realised
On Friday, I examined how China’s paraxylene (PX) net imports could fall to as little 8m tonnes in 2020 from last year’s 16m tonnes. This would have major negative implications for the big exporters to China such as South Korea, Japan and India. I believe this is the beginning of a long-term shift – the […]
China’s big declines in 2020 PX and PP imports: the impact on its major trading partners
By John Richardson CHINA’S refineries and petrochemicals plants came roaring back to almost full production in April as the country’s coronavirus lockdown came to an end, even though downstream manufacturing was a long way from full recovery. As of last week, I was told by my contacts in China that petrochemicals and polymers buyers were […]