By John Richardson ALL is right with the world if you are one of the small percentage of people, globally, who invest in US stock markets. Last week, as this article from Barron’s pointed out, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index hit new highs. And on Monday of this week, the S&P hit yet […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Mainstream Catches Up
By John Richardson Apologies to readers for the test blog post, by one of our colleagues, that appeared this morning – a technical error! As the blog catches up on a mountain of emails after a long trip, briefly, it is interesting how our ideas are becoming mainstream. Here is one example – an article […]
Politics, Politics And More Politics
By John Richardson CHINA’s extraordinary economic growth is, of course, largely the result of state-led investment in low-value manufacturing. But, as we discussed in chapter 10 of our book, Boom, Gloom & The New Normal, China now needs a new growth model if it is to escape the middle-income trap, as defined by the West […]
China Second Quarter Data Underlines Direction
By John Richardson ECONOMIC rebalancing in China isn’t working yet as this excellent article from The Wall Street Journal – summarising China’s second quarter economic data – describes. “Consumption as a share has fallen to 45.2%, down from 60.4% in the first half of 2012. The share of investment has risen to 53.9% from 51.2% over […]
Running Away From Complexity
By John Richardson TWO-and-half years ago, the blog was told of a struggling Shanghai shoe-repair shop owner who had mortgaged himself up to the hilt in order to buy three apartments. “He has taken the risk because he assumes that the government will never let property prices fall,” a sales and marketing manager from […]
Only 4-6 US Cracker Projects Will Happen
By John Richardson ONLY 4-6 of all the above US cracker projects are likely to go ahead as realisation dawns that both demand and feedstock advantage might not be as strong as previously thought, an industry source told the blog. “First of all, companies need to factor into demand and supply forecasts the possibility that […]
China’s Sandwich Generation Revisited
By John Richardson THE sandwich generation in China, those too rich to qualify for social housing but also too poor to pay for ridiculously-overpriced private accommodation in the first-tier cities, is becoming increasingly disillusioned. “We are really tired of claims that inflation is under control, when, in fact, the real inflation numbers are much higher […]
Zero And Declining Growth For China Imports
By John Richardson CHIINA’S ethylene equivalent imports will see zero growth over the next 5-7 years and the country’s propylene equivalent import requirement will decline over the same period, says a source with a major oil, gas and petrochemicals producer. This exceptionally bearish forecast is based on lower demand growth as China undergoes major economic […]
China’s SMEs Face New Lending Problem
By John Richardson CHINA’S small and medium-sized (SMEs) may already be finding it increasingly difficult to source trade finance as a result of the late June credit crackdown warned Winnie Wu, Hong Kong-based research analyst at Merrill Lynch, who was quoted in this article in The Economist. “A tightening of reckless credit is necessary in […]
China Faces Poor Peak Manufacturing Season
By John Richardson DEMAND for chemicals and plastics in Asia should be seasonally robust at this stage of the year, when Chinese companies typically prepare for the peak manufacturing season, but this isn’t happening in 2013, warned Paul Satchell, chemicals analyst with Cannacord Genuity. “Goods are manufactured during August and September [the peak season], for […]
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