By John Richardson DONALD TRUMP’S decision to pull out of the Iran nuclear deal, combined with the increasing likelihood of a US-China trade war, risks pushing the US polyethylene (PE) industry out in the cold. The above chart illustrates the US industry’s already difficult position in 2017 compared with ten years earlier. In all three […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China’s 74% Fall In High-Risk Lending Points To New Slowdown
By John Richardson THE above chart should give you a feeling of déjà vu. In early 2014, Chinese lending growth started to decline and by September of that year, broad recognition of the extent of the decline was behind a sharp retreat in global commodities prices as the global economy also slowed. History very often […]
Plastic Rubbish Crisis: No More Business As Usual For Polymers
By John Richardson DO NOT underestimate the ability of public opinion to reshape markets. That’s my first warning to any polymers industry executive out there who thinks future success will come from a business as usual approach. Public anger at the environmental damage being caused by today’s approach to disposing of single-use plastics is going […]
China Polyethylene: Inland Growth And Internet Sales Versus Threat From Sustainability
By John Richardson THE ABOVE CHART uses the same approach I used in late February for my post on per capita polypropylene consumption in China. In this case, my focus is on polyethylene (PE): The latest available IMF data for per capita income levels by province and other administrative region in China is for 2016 […]
US Polyethylene: Even Without Trade War, $6.2bn Of Sales In China At Risk
By John Richardson AS THE number of exemptions from the new US steel and aluminium tariffs grow for Americas “friends”, the direct impact of the tariffs might end up being fairly minimal. So far, Canada, Mexico and Australia have been let off the hook. But the national security basis upon which the tariffs have been […]
Plastic Waste Crisis: How Polymer Company Early Adopters Can Win
Being an “early adopter” is never easy because of cynicism and scepticism. But what choice do we polymer companies have? None, if they really want to protect their revenues. By John Richardson POLYMER companies will lose billions of euros and dollars in revenue unless they react in the right way to the global plastics […]
How To Replace Billions Of Dollars Of Polymer Sales Lost To New Recycling Rules
By John Richardson THE EU’s requirement that all plastics packaging must be recyclable by 2030 will result in billions of dollars in lost sales across the 28 members of the EU. To give you an example, my preliminary guesstimate suggests that some €6bn of EU sales could be lost in LLDPE alone in the 12 […]
How US Could Be Squeezed Out Of Europe’s Polyethylene Market
By John Richardson EARLIER this year a commonly held view was that globalisation would slip into reverse gear with the very real prospect of a global trade war. But this view didn’t take into account China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative, the launch of which predated the election of Donald Trump as US president […]
Benefits, Risks Of Petronas/Aramco Deals Serving As Template
By John Richardson THE PETRONAS and Saudi Aramco joint ventures in the RAPID refining-to-petrochemicals project in Malaysia may serve as a template for further “win/win deals”. Whilst these deals will substantially benefit the companies and countries involved, there are broader risks that I’ll discuss at the end of this blog post. Back in February, Aramco […]
Soft Brexit, Hard Brexit, No Brexit, A Labour Govt – Take Your Pick
By John Richardson IT was of course a gamble that backfired hugely. The UK’s General Election would, according to Prime Minister Theresa May, bring certainty and stability to politics during this very important period in British history. Instead, though, the PM now looks set to be leading a very fragile government with every possibility that […]