A sign that the central bank “put option” has come to an end By John Richardson EVER since 2008 there has been been a fantastic “put option” which has made the fortunes of many financial and commodity market investors. This involved assuming that every time bad economic news emerged, central banks would ramp-up economic stimulus. […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Six More Years Of America First: Implications For Global Petchems
By John Richardson DESPITE all the criticism surrounding President Trump’s handling of the Helsinki summit, 79% of Republican voters said that they approved of how he handled his meeting with President Putin, according to Axios/SurveyMonkey. The Wall Street Journal also reports that in 1992, 15 of the 20 most manufacturing intensive Congressional districts in America […]
Prepare For A More Regionalised, Fragmented Polymers World
By John Richardson THE above map global shows our base-case forecasts for global trade flows of HDPE, LLDPE and PP in 2025. It is the result of lots of hard work and smart thinking around feedstock costs, logistics costs and demand growth etc. and is a good start to your scenario planning process. The map […]
China Tariffs On US Petchem Feedstocks To Reshape Global Trade And Investment
By John Richardson CHINA’S planned tariffs against US petrochemical feedstock exports threaten a major upheaval of global trade flows in the feedstocks. The tariffs could also strengthen petrochemicals feedstock trading relationships between China and its fellow Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) country members. The Middle East may in particular step into the breach to supply […]
US-China Trade War Heavily Focused On Energy, Petchems
By John Richardson Normally, the blog only publishes on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays, but this week is an exceptional week because of the unfolding US-China trade war. So today I publish a post with more to follow tomorrow. YESTERDAY it became apparent that the US-China trade war includes a large number of energy, petchems, polymers […]
China Holds Most Of The Good Cards In Trade War With US
By John Richardson THE BREAKOUT of formal trade hostilities between China and the US, after more than a year of a “war of words” between the two countries, has occurred shortly after the EU responded to the US aluminium and steel tariffs with tariffs of its own against US goods. The much-feared tit-for-tat exchange of […]
China’s Xi: Squaring Circle Of Poverty Alleviation, Environment
By John Richardson THE ONLY China that most foreigners have visited, including myself, is the southern and eastern seaboard provinces where all the talk is about booming poylolefins and other polymers demand on the rise in middle class consumption. So strong is middle class consumption growth via mobile internet sales that the multiples of polyethylene […]
Global Polypropylene In 2018-2025: What To Plan For
By John Richardson THIS could be an excellent investment opportunity. Our ICIS Supply and Demand Database base case for Asian and global polypropylene (PP) operating rates sees the steady and steep climb that began in 2014 carrying on until a peak in 2020. In that year, global operating rates will reach 94% and Asian capacity […]
Rising Trade Tensions Could Threaten US Petchems Exports
By John Richardson THE Trump administration is holding out against a capital increase for the World Bank unless the bank reforms the way that it lends money to China, according to the FT. China is the World Bank’s biggest borrower. Scott Morris, a former US treasury official, views this as strategic, as it is enabling […]
China Continues Deleveraging With Reforms Set To Accelerate….
…global risks remain elevated and so beware of complacency By John Richardson THE conventional view is that China has stimulated its economy to perfection ahead of the important 19th National Party Congress which begins in Beijing on 18 October. The theory goes that President Xi Jinping has kept the lending spigot firmly open in order […]