By John Richardson THE NEXT big wake-up fall for global financial markets and the chemicals industry is likely to ring loud from the autos market. Expect global auto sales growth estimates for 2019 to be revised downwards with a steep sell-off in the share prices of the major car producers, as everyone realises that sales […]
Asian Chemical Connections
The world in 2019: Social unrest, populist politics, trade barriers and global recession
By John Richardson I PREDICTED in 2011 that the world would by a decade later be less globalised as a result of new trade barriers erected by populist politicians. Nature abhors a vacuum and so vacuums in nature are quickly filled. The same applies to politics and society. I warned that the failure to address […]
Nothing the Fed can do to stop China causing a global recession
By John Richardson US stock markets yesterday demonstrated their worst negative reaction to a US Federal rate rise since 1994. Asian equities also fell this morning in response to the Fed decision. But you would be entirely wrong to conclude that all that needs to happen to return to the bull run is for the […]
You must not assume a Goldilocks oil price in 2019 – not too hot, not cold
By John Richardson TIME AND again people get oil markets wrong because they entirely focus on the physical supply and demand of the black stuff whilst ignoring the pivotal role that financial speculators play in driving prices higher or lower. Since 2000, futures speculation has greatly increased because of regulatory liberalisation, as I wrote in […]
Asian PE margins to test 2012 lows as consensus catches up with economic realities
By John Richardson IT HAS been evident since as early as February this year that China’s economy is slowing down. But once again, as in 2014, companies and investors have overlooked the key indicator of a slowdown: The sharp decline in credit availability, particularly via China’s shadow banking system. “Not to worry,” I can hear […]
China Overlooked Lending Data Down 64% As Economic Slowdown Continues
By John Richardson FAR too little attention is still being paid to China’s lending data even though this has long been the key measure of whether its economy is accelerating or slowing down. In January 2014, lending in China started to slow down as China’s recently appointed president, Xi Jinping, exerted his authority. At that […]
China Shadow Lending Down By 70% With Deleveraging To Continue
By John Richardson The ABOVE CHART shows that lending via China’s shadow banking system fell by no less than 70% in January-February 2018 over the same period last year. This follows the 90% year-on-year fall in January 2018. The latest data underline the key conclusion that lending via the highly speculative shadow lending system is […]
China Shadow Banking Squeeze Threatens Global Economy
By John Richardson THE trend that I identified last August is continuing. China is in the midst of a major contraction in lending via its highly unregulated, and so very risky, shadow banking system. Last year we saw a big fall in shadow lending, but now it has totally collapsed. In January, shadow lending was […]
China’s Pollution/Economic Campaign To Reshape Petchems
By John Richardson I BELIEVE that China’s environmental crackdown will continue to disrupt petrochemicals and polymers markets for the next few years. This is not a temporary phenomenon that will largely go away with the end of the September 2017-March 2018 campaign to minimise air pollution in 28 northern cities. Further waves of environmental inspections […]
China Lending Bubble Adds 4.7m Tonnes To Polyethylene Consumption
By John Richardson THE IMF produced a very interesting study earlier this month, in which it estimated that if it had not been for China’s giant economic stimulus programme the country’s real GDP growth would have averaged only 5.3% per annum during the five years to 2016. Instead, however, the IMF estimates that China’s economy […]