By John Richardson SOME PEOPLE argue that despite the rapid rise in Chinese consumer debt over the last few years, there is nothing to worry about because consumer debt as a percentage of GDP China still lags behind Western countries. This misses the point and is an example of the dangerous “all is right with […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China economic stimulus and PP: How global demand could have been 71m tonnes smaller
By John Richardson CHINA came to the rescue of the global economy in 2009. This wasn’t for altruistic reasons as a government study said that unless a huge stimulus programme was launched, 20m Chinese workers would return to the coastal cities from inland China after the Lunar New Year in 2009 without jobs. This would […]
China imposes trade-war tariffs in US LDPE and raises tariffs on HDPE and LLDPE
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you. As I predicted, China has levied trade-war tariffs on US LDPE as the long term US and China battles over trade, technology and geopolitics intensify. US LDPE imports will be subject to 10% tariffs from 15 December. The 25% tariffs that China imposed on US HDPE […]
President Trump’s “better off without China” tweet not supported by the data
The opinions in this blog post are, as always, my own and do not reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson DONALD TRUMP insisted in a tweet last Friday that the US economy didn’t need China, “and frankly we would be better off without them.” He called on US companies to pull out […]
US declaring China currency manipulator risks 10.8m tonnes of global petrochemicals demand
By John Richardson BY PLAYING with fire President Trump has very likely set the forest on fire. Today’s decision by the White House decision to declare China a currency manipulator makes a global recession even more likely than it was yesterday, when I discussed the negative economic results of the president’s plan to levy […]
Trump latest tariffs risk global recession, 3.8m tonne lost PE demand
By John Richardson PRESIDENT Trump is playing with fire as a result of his plan to impose 10% import tariffs on a further $300bn of Chinese imports. This threatens to push the world into a global recession. (I hope you took notice when I warned you to expect very little from last week’s trade talks). […]
BASF’s shocking Q2 results should have been no shock at all
y John Richardson NOBODY should be surprised by the BASF results for Q1 2019 where, on a year-on-year basis, EBIT was down by 71%. This was largely because of events in China. The roots of these very poor results, with many more likely to follow from other chemicals companies, can be traced back to H1 […]
Multiple trade disputes and the risks for the US PE industry
By John Richardson FALLING out with a trading partner as big as China is problematic enough. But the US is also out of sorts with the EU, India and Turkey and is at risk of ending up in a dispute with Vietnam. The row with China is far from being resolved despite the G20 truce. […]
China PP demand at risk of 20 million tonnes shortfall in 2019-2025
By John Richardson THE CHANCES of some kind of trade deal have edged a little higher following the announcement that President Trump will have an extended meeting with President Xi at the G20 meeting in Japan later this month. They will not just pass each other in the corridor and shake hands during a group […]
Environmental credits separate polymer Winners and Losers as the world divides
By John Richardson THE WORLD is becoming a much more complex and fragmented place as the consensus about the benefits of open markets and the largely unrestricted movement of labour is challenged. There also seems to be a split between those individuals and governments that agree with the science supporting human-made climate change versus those […]