By John Richardson TODAY I get closer to completing my outlooks for China’s petrochemical and polymer imports in 2021 by analysing what might happen in polypropylene (PP). Later this week or next week I will complete the picture by looking at styrene monomer. Previously, I examined polyethylene (PE), where this year there is very little […]
Asian Chemical Connections
China slowdown may be the biggest petchem event in H1, not US and European tight supply
By John Richardson I SUSPECT that the bigger story for the global petrochemicals industry in H1 may not turn out to be the extraordinary production shortages in the US and Europe that are being so well detailed by the ICIS pricing and analytics teams. “Eh, what on earth are you talking about?” you may well […]
China’s polyethylene imports set to remain very strong in 2021
By John Richardson DEMAND, as I discussed on 11 February, will not be a problem for the global polyethylene (PE) business in 2021. We could see a continuation of the pandemic-related demand patterns we saw in 2020 if say problems with variants of the virus prevent us from moving significantly closer to herd immunity. The […]
Why it is obvious few, in any, conventional steam crackers will start-up after 2030
By John Richardson I SAID TO a contact earlier this week that it was remarkable that a senior executive at a petrochemicals company thought few, if any, conventionally built steam crackers would come online after 2030. His response was, “of course, that’s obvious”. But from the perspective of some other industry executives, the future is […]
China paraxylene imports may be just 6.6m tonnes in 2021 – 58% lower than only three years ago
By John Richardson PLEASE DON’T say I didn’t tell you. Further big declines in China’s paraxylene (PX) imports seem likely in. We could also see less dramatic falls in polypropylene (PP) and styrene monomer (SM) imports this year, which I shall detail in later posts. But here a I shall focus on PX. This year’s […]
China petrochemicals overstocking likely substantial as Q1 slowdown risks increase
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart on the left – showing average month-on-month percentage increases in China’s polypropylene (PP) imports in 2009-2019 versus the pattern in 2020 – underlines my argument that the production and export-led recovery that China enjoyed last year was part of a government plan. You can see the same pattern in […]
Final China PE 2020 numbers and new outlook for this year as logistics and pandemic threats increase
By John Richardson NOW THAT we have the final data for 2020, for last December, we can complete the picture of what was a truly extraordinary year. As I’ve been highlighting since last August onwards, a pandemic-related shift in demand led to a much stronger Chinese polyethylene (PE) market than just about anyone had expected. […]
Vaccine nationalism and lack of debt relief remain major threats to petchem growth
By John Richardson WE LIVE in a highly interconnected world as this statistic underlines: of the $18tr worth of goods that were traded last year, intermediate goods or components of finished goods represented $11tr, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. In the key automotive, textile, retail and construction petrochemical end-use industries, many […]
China’s economic dominance carries many short and long-term risks for petrochemicals
By John Richardson JUST 5% of US companies with revenues of more than $500m plan to relocate operations out of China, according to the latest survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. This partly reflects highly networked manufacturing clusters, wrote the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in this excellent article. “Automotive and electronics clusters […]
New China pandemic outbreak China single-biggest risk for global petchems in 2021
By John Richardson CHINA FACES another test of its pandemic control capabilities because of new outbreaks in Hebei and Heilongjiang provinces. On Wednesday, China recorded its first coronavirus death in eight months in Hebei. From an economic perspective, the good news, as CNBC reported, was that “Heilongjiang accounted for just over 1% of China’s GDP […]