By John Richardson China petrochemical and polymer price spreads over naphtha feedstock costs will rebound over the next few weeks as a result of events at the G2o meeting in Japan. The US has agreed to resume trade talks with China and pause on imposing any more tariffs on Chinese goods. Buyers of petrochemicals and […]
Asian Chemical Connections
President Trump’s Vietnam warning threatens more polyethylene disruptions
Just to stress that, as always, what follows are my own personal views and not those of ICIS By John Richardson DON’T say I didn’t warn you. Three weeks ago I said that Vietnam could well be dragged into the trade war. “A lot of companies are moving to Vietnam, but Vietnam takes advantage of […]
US LLDPE imports and the impact on European petrochemicals
By John Richardson EUROPEAN linear-low density polyethylene (LLDPE) markets have yet to feel the full effect of the big increase in US production in 2019. One of the reasons is that some Middle East material that should have gone to Europe was diverted to China in January-April. Netbacks to China were stronger because Chinese […]
Global polyethylene: Supply is not the problem, it is demand
By John Richardson WHEN people talk about supply it is very often because it is much easier to quantify than demand when, in fact, it is demand that’s the real problem. This is the case today in the global polyethylene (PE) market where the focus is on the big slug of new US supply hitting […]
China’s polyethylene demand in 2019 now at risk as slowdown gathers momentum
By John Richardson JUST when most of us thought we had figured out China’s polyethylene (PE) market, its ambiguities and complexities could again be about to come back and bite us. I am beginning to think that 2019 demand growth may not be as robust as I had thought would be the case only two weeks […]
China PP demand at risk of 20 million tonnes shortfall in 2019-2025
By John Richardson THE CHANCES of some kind of trade deal have edged a little higher following the announcement that President Trump will have an extended meeting with President Xi at the G20 meeting in Japan later this month. They will not just pass each other in the corridor and shake hands during a group […]
China real estate a growing stress point for global chemicals demand
By John Richardson WE ALL know, or at least we all should know, just how important is the Chinese economy to the global economy. Assume significantly weaker-than-consensus Chinese demand growth in everything from base chemicals to autos, smartphones and TVs, and there is no statistical basis for believing that strong growth in other regions can […]
Trade war certainties: A bi-polar world and the overwhelming importance of Chinese demand
By John Richardson THE IRONY IS that if the US trade deficit with China shrinks because of the trade war, its deficits with other developing countries may continue to increase as manufacturing chains are shifted away from China to avoid tariffs. The longer this situation continues, the more likely it could be that the US […]
China PP demand growth still heading for seven-year low despite surge in imports
By John Richardson ALL is not suddenly right with China’s polypropylene (PP) demand despite our revised data for January-April 2019 indicating growth is back on target to hit our forecast for the full year 2019 of around 6%. We had earlier placed January-April 2019 demand growth at just 2% compared with the same months last […]
Symptoms worsen for Dr Benzene and China economy as trade war accelerates
By John Richardson THE ABOVE chart is again telling us something very important about the real state of the Chinese economy. It shows Northeast Asian (NEA) benzene pricing spreads over naphtha feedstock costs, (NEA pricing is in effect a China price as of course China dominates the NEA region). Dr Benzene, as with Dr Copper, […]