By John Richardson THE RUMOURS travelled around my contacts, and I am sure many of your contacts, for several weeks that China was undercounting the number of coronavirus cases (the disease has now been given a name – COVID-19). Someone said to me last week, “People go to hospital, get an initial positive diagnosis, are […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Coronavirus: Global polyester chain faces major production cuts, shortages and cost increases
By John Richardson A GREAT example of the extent to which global supply chains are exposed to China is in the polyester sector where, as you can see from the above charts, China completely dominates global net imports of paraxylene (PX) and ethylene glycols (EG). Note that our database puts mono, di and tri-ethylene glycols […]
Coronavirus: Global polyolefins cutbacks seem inevitable on major China demand loss
We all hope that the coronavirus outbreak will soon be brought under control, that’s the main thing, and my sympathies and concerns go out to my good friends and everyone else in China. It also important to also think, as a secondary and less important issue, of the business risks, and I hope my latest […]
Why coronavirus will be a much bigger deal for petrochemicals than SARS
By John Richardson THE WORLD was very different in 2003 when SARS struck. Back then, China accounted for just 4% of the global economy but last year this had risen to 17%. The US was also the biggest source of global economic growth 17 years ago. China has since overtaken the US to become the […]
Why the trade deal is much ado about almost nothing
These are, as always, my personal views and do not express the views of ICIS. Thanks By John Richardson RELATIONSHIPS between the US and China reached a major low point in May 2018 when details of the full scale of US demands were leaked to the Chinese. They required China to abandon its economic growth […]
Why President Trump, unlike with Iran, will find it harder to shift course on China
As always, these are my personal views only and do not represent the views of ICIS. Thank you By John Richardson A WILLINGNESS to change policy direction in almost the blink of an eye is one of the messages from this week’s geopolitical chaos. When many of us thought the US was about to […]
US and Iran conflict in a world of declining growth and fragile supply chains
By John Richardson THINK of the Fukushima disaster in 2011 and multiply its impact on global supply chains by at least a factor of ten. Then place the supply disruptions from the US and Iran conflict into the context of an already weakening global economy and you can begin to grasp the risks ahead. The […]
Iran and the US: Assessing the risks for petrochemicals and the global economy
As always, these are my personal views only and don’t reflect the views of ICIS By John Richardson AT TIMES like this it’s very hard to be dispassionate. Emotions run high on either side of the widening political gulf as the two factions shout ever-more loudly at each other and refuse to listen. This is […]
Global polyethylene in 2020: Margins will reach historic lows as new growth model emerges
Here is a first of a series of outlook articles for 2020 where I focus on the risks ahead for the global polyethylene business By John Richardson CHINA’S polyethylene (PE) market will start 2020 with a whimper because of exceptionally high levels of overstocking, which is a reflection of growing global oversupply. In the […]
Long term downcycle will transform global petrochemicals, creating new Winners and Losers
By John Richardson THIS IS not a normal downcycle. Please get over that idea however many people, both inside and outside your company, tell you this. It is very tempting to believe that this is a normal bit of bloodletting that comes along ever so often. The temptation comes from the fact that it is […]