By John Richardson TEN YEARS AGO, fellow blogger Paul Hodges and I first highlighted the leading role that changing demographics would play in reshaping petrochemicals supply and demand. We have been emphasising the importance of demographics ever since. Demographics have, of course, always been a critical shaper of economies throughout human history. But during […]
Asian Chemical Connections
Vaccines, petrochemicals demand and a much more complex world
By John Richardson WE DIDN’T used to require expert knowledge of vaccines, epidemiology, political science and the impact of social media on human behaviour if we wanted to forecast petrochemicals demand, to name but a few of the many new disciplines that have now become essential. All we had to do was take IMF or […]
Politics and petrochemicals: Fifth Plenum review and the US elections
By John Richardson The rather dull and very short formal government communique that was released after the end of China’s 26-29 October Fifth Plenum should not lead you to conclude that nothing of great importance happened during this Chinese Communist Party meeting. What you should instead still conclude, as I have been highlighting since September, […]
Why the polypropylene industry must switch from volumes to value
By John Richardson EVERYONE knows about the oversupply in the polyethylene (PE) market as it has been discussed in more presentations and conferences than any of have had hot dinners. But less understood is the extent of oversupply in the global polypropylene (PP) business, which you can see from the above chart on the left. […]
After COVID-19: How US petrochemicals could become the laggard
The big oil, gas and petrochemicals companies have already started planning for how the world will look after we have conquered the virus. What follows is therefore one scenario for how the petrochemicals world might look. I hope it helps to stimulate and challenge your thinking. These are my personal views only and not the […]
Long term downcycle will transform global petrochemicals, creating new Winners and Losers
By John Richardson THIS IS not a normal downcycle. Please get over that idea however many people, both inside and outside your company, tell you this. It is very tempting to believe that this is a normal bit of bloodletting that comes along ever so often. The temptation comes from the fact that it is […]
Europe to become much more self-sufficient in polyethylene because of sustainability
Yes, I know I promised to focus on Asia and its cracker-to-PE industry today and how the region will not see shutdowns that will make way for the big increase in US production. This will still be a theme of a later post. But it occurred to me, after my post on Sunday, that I […]
IMF confirms global economy all about China as US threat to growth persists
By John Richardson DON’T SAY I didn’t tell you. An important new IMF study confirms what I’ve been arguing for a long time: China has overtaken the US to become the biggest locomotive of global economic growth. In the five years between 2013 and 2028, China accounted for 28% of all global growth, behind the […]
India must forget trying to follow China and should instead launch a Green New Deal
By John Richardson DON’T WORRY, I am told, India is on the way. As China undergoes major structural changes which guarantee much lower petrochemicals and polymers demand growth over the long term, it is widely assumed that India will pick up the mantle. But that what happened in China was an economic, social and political […]
The new China and the rise of the Millennials transform the petrochemicals business model
By John Richardson ANYONE who has anything to do with the petrochemicals industry or anything to do with the global economy, in other words all of us, needs to pay close attention to the above chart and what it is telling us. This once again demonstrates the enormous value of the ICIS Supply & Demand […]
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