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Trump, China’s Geographic Realities And The Risks Ahead

By John Richardson

DONALD Trump doesn’t read that many books. But one book that he should read (assuming he hasn’t done already,and so apologies in advance if I am wrong) is Tim Marshall’s excellent Prisoners of Geography.

The chapter on …

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US Trade Policies Risk Making America’s Problems Worse

By John Richardson

YOU start with studying the data. You then double check, triple check and quadruple check the data. Next, once you are satisfied with the data, you ask yourself this question: “What does the data mean?”

All of …

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The Trump White House: Why Facts Should Be Sacred

By John Richardson

IN a 1921 essay marking the centenary of the British newspaper, the Manchester Guardian, CP Scott, the newspaper’s editor, wrote this very famous sentence: “Comment is free, but facts are sacred”.

It is therefore heartening that the …

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The Failure Of The Liberal Political And Economic Elite

By John Richardson

ONE of the research papers produced ahead of this year’s World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos highlighted demographics as one of the key reasons for rising working and middle class discontent in the West.

In an …

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Xi’s Davos Speech: Risks, Opportunities For Chemicals Industry

By John Richardson

CHINA’S President Xi Jinping yesterday delivered a speech to World Economic Forum in Davos that has been widely praised. What made the speech very striking was how its tone and content contrasted with just about everything US …

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Trump’s Yuan Mistake And A New Global Debt Crisis

By John Richardson

DONALD Trump is right when he says that China is manipulating its currency. It is just that he misunderstands the direction in which the currency is being manipulated.

Ten years ago, he would have been correct to …

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Southeast Asia: Confronting The Real Downside Potential

By John Richardson

SOUTHEAST ASIA’S (SEA) economies can be divided into two main categories. These are the heavily export-exposed economies of Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore and the two countries with the biggest internal demand drivers – Indonesia and the …

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Ageing Populations Threaten A Repeat Of The 1930s

By John Richardson

THIS is an era of the populist strongman, and also a woman if Marine Le Pen wins this year’s French presidential election.

We have been here before, of course, many times in history, most notably in the …

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India’s Demonitisation: Measuring The Real Impact

By John Richardson

FOR those interested in what demonitisation might mean for Indian polyethylene (PE) demand in the calendar years 2016 and 2017, the above two charts will be useful.

The top chart shows our base case for Indian demand …

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US And China In 2017: Political Risk Analysis Is Essential

By John Richardson

ON MONDAY, I talked about how US companies might lose out in the long term  under the new Trump administration as China’s economy evolves. This post was mainly for chemicals industry strategic planners with a 5-10 year …

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