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Recent History Of Oil Suggests Production Will Stay High

By John Richardson

THERE is a much-broader acceptance today of the recent history of oil markets, which in summary was as follows:…

Oil and other commodities became a great way to make money for speculators at the height of the

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China’s Li Keqiang Pulls No Punches On The Challenges Ahead

By John Richardson

Li Keqiang was short on detail during a major speech last week, said some analysts. This was taken as a sign that Beijing has become nervous about the pace of the economic slowdown, a theory supported by …

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China’s Polyolefins Price Recovery: The Role Of Crude

By John Richardson

THE  above chart is a useful reminder of the role that crude prices has played in influencing the pricing of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) in Asia since January of last year (I have picked just two …

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The Long Term Average Price Of Oil Is $30 A Barrel

By John Richardson

OIL and petrochemicals markets have behaved from mid-February until today as if the world is about to return to the way it was in the first half of last year.

Here is the thinking behind this behaviour:…

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How China Can Fix Its Housing Crisis

By John Richardson

THE above chart shows the affordability of real estate in China’s Tier 1 cities (its biggest cities) as of June 2013 compared with many of the world’s other “rich cities”.

Why the speech marks around “rich cities”? …

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China’s Real Estate Crisis Was Entirely Predictable

By John Richardson

AN investment bubble can only remain stable if you pump ever-more air into the bubble. If you don’t continue to do this, then the bubble is in severe danger of bursting.

The warning signs started flashing red …

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Be Very Careful Of the $60-70 Oil “New Normal”

By John Richardson

THERE is an argument being made that the recent stability in oil prices will continue as crude enters a “New Normal” of $60-70 a barrel.

This type of thinking seems to have had an effect on petrochemicals …

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China’s Currency Appreciates By 26% In Four Years

By John Richardson

THE above chart further illustrates the dilemma confronting China, which, despite the often-discussed and wrongly interpreted growth in its domestic consumption, still depends on exports for about a quarter of its GDP.

Based on Bank of International …

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India’s Budget: Going Beyond The 2% Who Own Shares

By John Richardson

ANYBODY who invests in the Indian stock market might well regard today as a buying opportunity ahead of tomorrow’s announcement of India’s latest budget.

Or, of course, it might be an opportunity to go short if you …

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“Bad Deflation” Set To Dominate Global Economy

By John Richardson

THERE has been a great deal of discussion lately about the differences between “good” and “bad deflation”.

Good deflation, we are told, includes the fall in oil prices that has put more money in the pockets of …

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