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China And A Breakdown In Free Trade: Scenarios For Petrochemicals

By John Richardson

MY blog post last Friday, on the threat to the petrochemicals industry of a retreat in global free trade, has gained a great deal of interest. This is good as this is an essential debate.

Today I …

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Oil Prices: You Must Answer The Supercycle Argument

By John Richardson

THE continuing failure of genuine price discovery in oil markets was perfectly summarised  by the the Wall Street Journal today, when it wrote:

Commodity hedge funds added $4.1 billion in the first quarter, their best quarter in …

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Demographics And Economics: We Haven’t Even Had The Debate

By John Richardson

JAPAN has seen two decades of deflation and rising debts. Everyone should now recognise that Abenomics have failed to resolve this crisis. Abenomics were always going to fail because you cannot print babies.

What a pity that …

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China’s Yuan: Making Sense Of All The Noise

By John Richardson

LAST year nearly $1trn was moved out of China as rich people lost confidence in the direction of the economy. Much of this was moved if not illegally, then through stretching the rules to the very edge …

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Negative Interest Rates Will Not Work

By John Richardson

WE are entering an almost surreal world where Western central bankers, rather than admit they are wrong, have either already opted for, are in the case of the Fed are openly discussing, negative lending rates.

If the …

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Japan Repeats Its Mistake. You Cannot Print Babies

By John Richardson

WHEN you have built your reputation on a policy that has so far failed, you have essentially two options. You can either admit you were wrong and reverse course or double down on your mistake – i.e. …

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China’s Courage And Vision In Ending One-Child Policy

By John Richardson

CHINA’S decision to scrap its one-child policy will obviously not make any significant difference to labour  shortages for at least the next 20 years or so as that is how long it will take all the new …

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China PP Exports Jump 38% On Jobs Drive

 

Polyolefins markets in Asia are not behaving in the way that they used to behave. For value-added analysis of these changes, and for price and margin forecasts for the region, contact john.richardson@icis.com for details of how to subscribe to …

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Too Good To Last for Asian Petchems? Yes

By John Richardson

IT has been a fantastic few months for the integrated Asian polyethylene (PE) producers as the above chart illustrates.

You can see that the average price for naphtha was $533/tonne CFR Japan in April. This compared with …

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Ageing Populations And Fitting Two Billion Into One Billion

By John Richardson

THE above chart is of absolutely critical importance for anybody who is serious about estimating both the strength and nature of future global demand growth for chemicals.

If you are not a serious analysts then, sure, ignore …

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