How long can bear-market rallies last?

Business, China, Economics, Markets, US


The current run-up in equities might go on and on – perhaps even for several years, according to economist Russell Napier.

But he warns, in this excellent video interview with FT journalist John Authers, that an extended boom in equities doesn’t necessarily mean the economic fundamentals are sound.

For example,the stock market rally after the dot com bubble burst was fuelled by too-lax lending. Was this in effect a bear-market boom?

Now governments are pouring money into economies the world over to stimulate consumption.

This will lead in perhaps as long as 2-3 years time to a big inflation problem, the Chinese losing their appetite for US Treasuries, Treasury yields doubling and a cataclysmic bear market with the S&P falling to 400.

Until then, S&P could easily double from its March low, predicts Napier

Do you have the courage to stick your money in and wait?

It still feels counter-intuitive that the current run-up will last a few years given the scale of consumer and corporate debt.

But since when has logic had anything to do with anything?


Aussie on a losing wicket


The timing of when to strike the ball is everything in the wonderful sport of cr...

Learn more

Net lending declines by 70-80% in Q2 in China


This very interesting note from Jun Ma, chief economist for Greater China at Deu...

Learn more
More posts
US ethylene glycols: Diversifying away from China may prove impossible

By John Richardson US BUSINESSES are making arrangements to diversify their supply chains away from ...

The US places heavy bets on LLDPE at a time of demand erosion

By John Richardson IT IS a remarkably single product-focused strategy given the exposure of linear-l...

China’s real GDP growth below 6% as mono-ethylene glycols margins provide early indicator of depth of downturn

By John Richardson GLOBAL stock markets will now doubt respond negatively to the news that China’s...

Surge in US polyethylene exports occurs as China growth slows, Asian margins turn negative

By John Richardson PERHAPS ONE could argue, but I certainly wouldn’t, that in a perfect world the ...

Plastics rubbish and the developing world: Lost petrochemicals demand and the new service-led approach

By John Richardson IT WAS billed as a liberating product, something that brought a little luxury to ...

Little prospects of genuine US and China deal leave US petrochemicals exports very vulnerable

As always, this blog post expresses my own personal views and these are not the views of ICIS. Thank...

The new China and the rise of the Millennials transform the petrochemicals business model

By John Richardson ANYONE who has anything to do with the petrochemicals industry or anything to do ...

Global manufacturing slowdown: Turn to China’s polypropylene market for your explanation

By John Richardson THEY SADLY still don’t get it. All the clamour yesterday was about declinin...


Market Intelligence

ICIS provides market intelligence that help businesses in the energy, petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

Learn more


Across the globe, ICIS consultants provide detailed analysis and forecasting for the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer markets.

Learn more

Specialist Services

Find out more about how our specialist consulting services, events, conferences and training courses can help your teams.

Learn more

ICIS Insight

From our news service to our thought-leadership content, ICIS experts bring you the latest news and insight, when you need it.

Learn more