US Consumers Can No Longer Rescue The Global Economy

Australia, Business, China, Company Strategy, Europe, Oil & Gas, US

US-incomes-Sept15

By John Richardson

WE have gone beyond a major turning point in world history when many of the certainties we used to be able to depend on simply no longer apply.

Just about everyone now accepts that the old certainties relating to China no longer apply. That’s the good news.

But the bad news is that far too few people seem to get the US demographic argument, which is reinforced by the above chart.

The chart shows US per capita income since 1967 on the vertical axis (in US$ 2014 to adjust for inflation), and US total population by year along the horizontal axis.

The data on the chart tell us this: Median US incomes rose from $18,000 in 1971 to a peak of $31,000 in 2000 as the eldest Boomer reached 54, whilst the total population rose from 205 million to 280 million.  Since then, incomes have plateaued and were still below 2000 levels in 2014.  

The Babyboomer generation was huge in size, rich relative to everybody else in America – and absolutely crucial, also, it was very rich indeed compared with the vast majority of people in the developing world.

How do we solve this problem of stagnating income levels as all the Babyboomers retire? The answer is a reduction in income inequality

Three things happened when the Bayboomers were at the peak of their earnings power:

  1. They boosted US demand for housing, for automobiles and for a whole array of consumer goods in volumes that we have never seen before in economic history. So we saw fantastic US economic growth
  2. This rising tide of demand spread overseas, enabling China to become the “workshop of the world”. Without the Babyboomers, both in the US and the West in general, hundreds of millions of migrant workers in China would not have been able to escape from poverty. And without this mass escape from poverty, China’s GDP growth would not have been anywhere near as strong.
  3. As China grew so did much of the rest of the world economy, including all the oil and other commodities exporters to China.

The argument for lifting the incomes of  minority groups, and America’s “squeezed middle class” in general, is therefore not centred on some left wing notion of fairness, but is instead purely about economic common sense – whether the common sense comes from the left, the right or the centre. Nobody should care about where the ideas comes from, as long as they get the job done.

But in America’s fractious, febrile  and quite often irrational political environment, common sense is the opposite of crude oil in that is in chronic short supply.

This means that least for the next few years we have to forget another old certainty: US consumers being always able to rescue the global economy.

PREVIOUS POST

BASF's Kurt Bock Underlines The Major Changes In China

29/09/2015

By John Richardson BASF CEO Kurt Bock has underlined some of the major shifts in...

Learn more
NEXT POST

China: Why Complacency Followed By Panic Hasn't Helped....

01/10/2015

…..AND WHY YOU NOW NEED MULTIPLE SCENARIOS   By John Richardson FOR m...

Learn more
More posts
Developing world polymers demand unlikely to see quick rebound
20/09/2020

By John Richardson THIS IS a tragedy in the genuine sense of the word, not just in the so-often misu...

Read
China’s policy dilemma: raising local demand while protecting exports
13/09/2020

  By John Richardson IN THIS Western-centric world, a huge amount of ink is split over the cons...

Read
China’s polyethylene demand good so far in 2020 but beware of risks ahead
10/09/2020

Note that all the comparisons in this post are on a year-on-year basis unless otherwise stated By Jo...

Read
Ah, I see: China’s booming demand mystery a little closer to being solved
08/09/2020

  Note that all the data comparisons below are on a year-on-year basis By John Richardson THE P...

Read
The China polyester mystery continues in a world turned upside down
07/09/2020

By John Richardson SOMETHING very strange is happening in China’s polyester industry which has eno...

Read
China will struggle to boost local retail sales during rest of 2020 with export outlook uncertain
04/09/2020

By John Richardson IF IT were easy, then there would be an oversupply of owners of large yachts in M...

Read
Pandemic and the developing world: No quick and easy solutions
01/09/2020

By John Richardson POVERTY alleviation in low-income developing countries could be set back a decade...

Read
The pandemic and petrochemicals demand: a whole new approach is required
30/08/2020

By John Richardson MONITORING demand has never been harder because of the pandemic. One of my collea...

Read

Market Intelligence

ICIS provides market intelligence that help businesses in the energy, petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

Learn more

Analytics

Across the globe, ICIS consultants provide detailed analysis and forecasting for the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer markets.

Learn more

Specialist Services

Find out more about how our specialist consulting services, events, conferences and training courses can help your teams.

Learn more

ICIS Insight

From our news service to our thought-leadership content, ICIS experts bring you the latest news and insight, when you need it.

Learn more