Global markets decoupled over past 6 months

stocks Sept10.pngThe blog’s 6 monthly survey of major stock markets, now including the US 30 year Treasury bond, shows mixed performance since March:

• The worst performers have been Shanghai and Tokyo, down ~12%. They are also the worst performers since the pre-Crisis peak, down ~50%.
• In the middle are the US, UK, Russia and Brazil, down ~2%. Since the peak, Brazil is down 9%, UK down 18%, US down 29% and Russia down 40%.
• The positive performers are Germany, up 6%; India up 11%; and the US 30 year Treasury bond, up 15%. Since the peak, however, Germany is still down 23% and India down 10%, but the Treasury bond is up 20%.

Whilst there is a lot of talk about a bond market bubble, as discussed recently in Questions to the chemical market genie, there are also a number of quite rational reasons why investors might focus on long-dated bonds issued by major governments.

Monday’s Financial Times will feature the blog’s analysis of this issue.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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