The blog on BBC Radio

UK consumerMay13.pngSlowly but surely the world’s media are starting to follow the demographic story, and how it relates to today’s ongoing economic crisis. Thus the blog was interviewed by BBC Radio’s flagship current affairs programme, The World Tonight on Thursday (it begins at 10:20 mins).

The interview was part of a special series looking at why the UK economy was failing to show many signs of growth, despite £bns of stimulus and low interest rates.

The blog discussed the chart above, noting:

• Household expenditure is 60% of GDP in the UK and elsewhere (and as high as 71% in the US). It thus dominates the economy, and cannot be replaced by other items
• People’s spending drops past 50 as the kids leave home and they move towards retirement
• Household spend thus drops from £30k (€35k, $45k) at the age of 50 years to just £20k by 65
• Already 28% of the UK population are in their low-spending years. And 2100 BabyBoomers are due to retire every day between now and 2030

We therefore need to recognise that Western economies have gone ex-growth. And we should instead be celebrating the fact that people are living so much longer, for the first time in history.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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