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Chart of the Year – Oil prices return to natural gas linkage

Last year’s ‘Chart of the Year’ was headlined “China’s auto sales bubble begins to burst“.  Few would disagree with this view today.  Similarly, there is little doubt about 2015′s Chart of the Year.  It has been the focus of industry and analyst attention all year: Those who believed that argument that the world faces an […]

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US, Iran to sell oil in January as Libya ramps up volumes

Both the US and Iran are likely to be moving oil into world markets early in the New Year. The lifting of the US export ban has led to early announcements of oil sales: Vitol will move the first cargo via the Enterprise terminal in Houston in early January.  Iran is expecting to have sanctions lifted around the same […]

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$25/bbl oil – probably now only a question of “when”, not “if”

Oil prices are just $1 or so away from falling back into the $10 – $35/bbl range that has dominated most of history. Thus we are now reaching a second critical moment in oil markets since Stimulus began in 2009, as the chart shows: The first was the end of the Stimulus rally which ran […]

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Group think on oil prices puts company profits at risk

Shell Chemicals General Manager, Kate Johnson, asked a great question at our Conference last week, to which not a single hand went up in reply, as everyone had forecast an oil price around $100/bbl : “How many of your companies used $60/bbl as their oil price forecast in the 2015 Budget?” “Group think” is clearly […]

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Oil price forecasts based on myths, not proper analysis

Did your company or investment manager use $50/bbl as a forecast Scenario price for oil this year?  If not, why not?  And has this question even been asked, as you finalise forecasts for 2016? In recent months, many readers have told me despairingly of their efforts to suggest alternative Scenarios to last year’s “consensus” view […]

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Algorithms drive oil prices up 6%, yet fundamentals remain weak

It only took 2 days for a shocking example to confirm my concern on Monday about the volatility being created by central bank stimulus: As the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) chart shows, a major oil price move took place early in Wednesday’s trading US WTI oil had been trading below $44/bbl, when suddenly prices jumped from […]

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IEA Sept15

Oil stocks at record levels as demand growth slows, supply rises

OECD oil inventories have never been higher.  They were 2.9mb at the end of July, and are expected to have risen further since then, according to energy watchdog the International Energy Agency: In terms of days of forward cover, they are now at 63 days in the OECD overall They are at 68 days in […]

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Impact of $25/bbl oil – free pH Report webinar next Tuesday

The consensus failed to forecast last year’s oil price collapse.  So is today’s conventional wisdom correct to suggest that prices will now stabilise at current levels and then move higher? We focus on this critical issue in this quarter’s free webinar from The pH Report: The potential for $25/bbl to be the “new normal” for […]

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Oil heads to $30/bbl as Great Unwinding reaches 1st anniversary

Global markets are becoming ever more complex as the Great Unwinding of stimulus policies continues.  This means that each blog post is now taking much longer to write.  It therefore seems sensible to focus on writing 3 posts each week - on Monday, Wednesday and Friday – in order to continue to provide the highest possible […]

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Iran deal highlights “massively oversupplied” oil market

The oil market was the first to feel the impact of the Great Unwinding of policymaker stimulus nearly a year ago.  It had completely lost its key role of price discovery due to the liquidity being supplied by the central banks.  This had overwhelmed the fundamentals of supply/demand.  And we are still living with the consequences […]

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