Russia’s growth stalls in 2012, as new capacity comes online

Russia Feb13.pngThe blog’s annual review of the Russian market showed production growth stalled in 2012. Output had picked up sharply in 2010-11 following the 2009 crisis. But as the chart shows, based on latest data from statistics agency Rosstat, today’s outlook has become more difficult.

As always, the blog is grateful to ICIS’ Sergei Blagov for the data below:

• Polymers output (red line) was unchanged at 5.4MT
• Fertiliser volumes (blue) at 17.8MT were down 6%
• Synthetic rubber (green) showed a small increase, up 2% at 1.5MT

In the major individual products, ammonia was down 1% at 13.8MT. Ethylene was down 7% at 2.3MT, and polyethylene was down 9% at 1.56MT. Propylene was also down 9% at 1.1MT.

2013, however, should see the start of a major period of expansion in Russia’s production capability, following its admission to the World Trade Organisation last August. The much-delayed PolyOm polypropylene (PP) plant in Omsk has just come online, and will be followed by Sibur’s new plant at Tobolsk. This will turn Russia into a PP exporter for the first time. Other major new plants and complexes are also planned for the next few years.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

Leave a Reply