Oil price rally a “Head Fake” says International Energy Agency

Oil markets

SHARE THIS STORY

Brent Mar15Why wouldn’t oil prices return to their long-term average around $30/bbl?  After all,  the world is facing a long-term energy supply glut.  The latest monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) confirms my view that the recent rally has simply been a trading coup:

HEAD FAKE
“Behind the façade of stability, the rebalancing triggered by the price collapse has yet to run its course, and it might be overly optimistic to expect it to proceed smoothly. Steep drops in the US rig count have been a key driver of the price rebound. Yet US supply so far shows precious little sign of slowing down. Quite to the contrary, it continues to defy expectations. Output estimates for 4Q14 North American supply have been revised upwards by a steep 300 kb/d.

The projection of 1Q15 supply has also been raised. Plunging US crude throughputs – due to seasonal and unplanned refinery outages, as well as weak margins and high gasoline stock builds in December – have seen US crude inventories soar, compounding the impact of robust supply growth. At last count, total US crude stocks stood at 468 mb, an all-time record.”

The chart above highlights the key issue.  It shows oil prices in dollars of the day, and $2015, since oil was first commercialised in 1861:

  • They were very high in the first 20 years, and volatile, as exploration and refining were very new
  • Then they settled down into a sustainable range around $20/bbl until the mid-1970s
  • The arrival of the BabyBoomers in the 25 – 54 Wealth Creator cohort caused demand to surge
  • OPEC took advantage of this to boost prices back to their mid-19th century level
  • But this proved only temporary, and prices fell back again to normal levels in 1985

Why should central banks prove any more successful than OPEC in keeping asset and commodity prices high?  That is really the question.  They can create temporary once-off wealth effects by adding debt.  But once the wealth has been spent, it has gone.  Only rising incomes can create sustainable new demand.

As the IEA notes, data on falling rig counts is irrelevant to current prices.  Instead, we need to focus on what is actually happening on the ground in terms of the fundamentals of supply and demand.

The central banks’ misguided stimulus policies have destroyed price discovery mechanisms in many major markets.  But now, as I have argued since August, the Great Unwinding of these policies is well underway.  The oil price is falling again, and the dollar is rising sharply.  And as the IEA suggests, this is not going to be an easy ride.

 

WEEKLY MARKET ROUND-UP
My weekly round-up of Benchmark prices since the Great Unwinding began is below, with ICIS pricing comments:
Benzene Europe, down 52%. “Sentiment remains sluggish amid continued length in the region”
Brent crude oil, down 48%
Naphtha Europe, down 43%. “Prices have fallen on the back of a decline in upstream Brent crude oil futures”
PTA China, down 38%. “Huge inventories in the key China markets had led many market participants to hold a bearish market outlook”
HDPE US export, down 23%. “Export prices edged up on a few grades this week following increases in Europe and Asia”
¥:$, down 19%
S&P 500 stock market index, up 5%

PREVIOUS POST

Fertility rates have collapsed in the world's 10 largest economies

13/03/2015

One of the great myths of our time is that the world’s population is inevi...

Learn more
NEXT POST

Oil price, China Outlook – free pH Report webinar tomorrow

16/03/2015

There have so far been 3 stages to the oil price collapse since I first forec...

Learn more
More posts
Oil markets hit perfect storm as coronavirus cuts demand
01/03/2020

Former Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Yamani’s warning in 2000 looks increasingly prophetic today: ...

Read
Oil markets hold their ‘flag shape’ for the moment, as recession risks mount
17/11/2019

Oil markets can’t quite make up their mind as to what they want to do, as the chart confirms. ...

Read
Oil market weakness suggests recession now more likely than Middle East war
11/08/2019

Oil markets remain poised between fear of recession and fear of a US attack on Iran. But gradually i...

Read
Recession risk rises as Iran tensions and US-China trade war build
26/05/2019

Oil markets are once again uneasily balanced between two completely different outcomes – and o...

Read
Déjà vu all over again for oil markets as recession risks rise
03/03/2019

Back in 2015, veteran Saudi Oil Minister Ali  Naimi was very clear about Saudi’s need to adop...

Read
Oil prices flag recession risk as Iranian geopolitical tensions rise
20/05/2018

Today, we have “lies, fake news and statistics” rather than the old phrase “lies, ...

Read
Saudi oil policy risks creating perfect storm for Aramco flotation
15/04/2018

Good business strategies generally create good investments over the longer term. And so Aramco need...

Read
Economy faces slowdown as oil/commodity prices slide
12/02/2018

Oil and commodity markets long ago lost contact with the real world of supply and demand. Instead, t...

Read

Market Intelligence

ICIS provides market intelligence that help businesses in the energy, petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

Learn more

Analytics

Across the globe, ICIS consultants provide detailed analysis and forecasting for the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer markets.

Learn more

Specialist Services

Find out more about how our specialist consulting services, events, conferences and training courses can help your teams.

Learn more

ICIS Insight

From our news service to our thought-leadership content, ICIS experts bring you the latest news and insight, when you need it.

Learn more