China’s economic “bubble” continues to deflate

Dalian Nov09.jpgThis year’s speculative boom in China’s economy, created by major government lending and stimulus programmes, now seems to be ending.

The evidence for this is in the above chart, showing LLDPE futures trading on the Dalian exchange. This hit 80 million tonnes (MT) in April, versus total global output for this type of polyethylene of only 2MT a year.

But volume has since been falling steadily. Last month, it was back at 13MT. And prices failed to make new highs, even though crude oil prices hit a new 2009 peak at over $80/bbl.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. Paul is also an invited member of the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such as oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.


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