New White Paper for New Year

New Normal Jan11.pngThe blog’s 2 White Papers have proved enormously popular this year. More than 10000 copies have been downloaded around the world.

They focused on the New Normal. This reflected the blog’s belief that the current recovery is not taking us back to the 2003-7 Boom period. Instead, it is taking us forward to a world where demand patterns will be quite different.

The key influence is changing demographics:

Western BabyBoomers, who have driven major consumption growth over the past 25 years, are now in their 50s and 60s. They are starting to consume less, and save more, as they enter retirement. This is already leading to lower sales into previously key markets such as autos and housing.

• In turn, this means the emerging economies of Asia, Latin America and Africa can no longer rely on exports to drive their growth. They instead have to stimulate domestic consumption. And given their lower GDP/capita, this will dramatically change their demand patterns too.

The new White Paper highlights these major changes. It builds on the blog’s recent Budget Outlook, Budgeting for Uncertainty.

The changes required are not going to be easy to manage, and they will therefore create winners and losers. Its aim is therefore to help you and your company become winners, as the transition to the New Normal continues.

It will be published in the New Year.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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