China’s Li calls for “reasonable” GDP growth in 2011

Chemical companies, Consumer demand, Economic growth

China lendDec10.pngThe blog is awarding itself a pat on the back today, for its decision to focus on electricity consumption and bank lending as key indicators for China’s economy. According to the Wall Street Journal, these are 2 of the only 3 statistics used by China’s Vice Premier, Li Keqiang (the other is rail cargo).

Li’s view matters, as he is expected to take over as premier in 2012. And he apparently has the same view as the blog about the value of most Chinese statistics. He told the US ambassador that the GDP figure, for example, is “man-made and therefore unreliable“.

Thus it is no great surprise to find that Li also seems to share the blog’s concern that China’s economy is now in danger of over-heating. This has to be a growng concern, given the trends shown in the above chart:

• Bank lending (red column) is on track to be up 38% in H2, versus H2 2008
• Electricity consumption (blue line) is up 24%.

No economy in the world can grow at these rates without building up problems for the future. As China’s Academy of Social Sciences has just reported, “high inflation and soaring housing prices have contributed to a growing sense of popular disaffection“.

So far, the current leadership is still trying to avoid taking the painful measures that will be needed. But at least a debate seems to be underway, with Li reportedly arguing that “more efforts should be provided to stabilize prices next year” and to define economic growth rate targets “reasonably“.

PREVIOUS POST

New White Paper for New Year

18/12/2010

The blog’s 2 White Papers have proved enormously popular this year. More t...

Learn more
NEXT POST

3 major risks for 2011

21/12/2010

There seems to be gathering concern in Germany about the outlook for 2011. This ...

Learn more
More posts
G7 births hit new record low, below Depression level in 1933
14/07/2019

If a country doesn’t have any babies, then in time it won’t have an economy. But that...

Read
From subprime to stimulus…and now social division
06/07/2019

The blog has now been running for 12 years since the first post was written from Thailand at the end...

Read
Resilience amidst headwinds is key for H2
30/06/2019

Resilience is set to become the key issue as we look forward to H2, as I note in a new analysis for ...

Read
Perennials set to defeat Fed’s attempt to maintain the stock market rally as deflation looms
23/06/2019

Never let reality get in the way of a good theory. That’s been the policy of western central b...

Read
Europe’s auto sector suffers as Dieselgate and China’s downturn hit sales
16/06/2019

Trade wars, Dieselgate and recession risk are having a major impact on the European auto industry, a...

Read
2019 Global Outlook – a mid-year update: ACS webinar on Thursday
04/06/2019

There will be no shortage of important topics to discuss on Thursday, at my regular Chemistry and t...

Read
Smartphone market decline begins to impact global stock markets
19/05/2019

The bad news continues for the world’s smartphone manufacturers and their suppliers.  And Pre...

Read
US-China trade war confirms political risk is now a key factor for companies and the economy
12/05/2019

There are few real surprises in life, and President Trump’s decision to launch a full-scale tr...

Read

Market Intelligence

ICIS provides market intelligence that help businesses in the energy, petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

Learn more

Analytics

Across the globe, ICIS consultants provide detailed analysis and forecasting for the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer markets.

Learn more

Specialist Services

Find out more about how our specialist consulting services, events, conferences and training courses can help your teams.

Learn more

ICIS Insight

From our news service to our thought-leadership content, ICIS experts bring you the latest news and insight, when you need it.

Learn more