China’s Li calls for “reasonable” GDP growth in 2011

Chemical companies, Consumer demand, Economic growth

China lendDec10.pngThe blog is awarding itself a pat on the back today, for its decision to focus on electricity consumption and bank lending as key indicators for China’s economy. According to the Wall Street Journal, these are 2 of the only 3 statistics used by China’s Vice Premier, Li Keqiang (the other is rail cargo).

Li’s view matters, as he is expected to take over as premier in 2012. And he apparently has the same view as the blog about the value of most Chinese statistics. He told the US ambassador that the GDP figure, for example, is “man-made and therefore unreliable“.

Thus it is no great surprise to find that Li also seems to share the blog’s concern that China’s economy is now in danger of over-heating. This has to be a growng concern, given the trends shown in the above chart:

• Bank lending (red column) is on track to be up 38% in H2, versus H2 2008
• Electricity consumption (blue line) is up 24%.

No economy in the world can grow at these rates without building up problems for the future. As China’s Academy of Social Sciences has just reported, “high inflation and soaring housing prices have contributed to a growing sense of popular disaffection“.

So far, the current leadership is still trying to avoid taking the painful measures that will be needed. But at least a debate seems to be underway, with Li reportedly arguing that “more efforts should be provided to stabilize prices next year” and to define economic growth rate targets “reasonably“.

PREVIOUS POST

New White Paper for New Year

18/12/2010

The blog’s 2 White Papers have proved enormously popular this year. More t...

Learn more
NEXT POST

3 major risks for 2011

21/12/2010

There seems to be gathering concern in Germany about the outlook for 2011. This ...

Learn more
More posts
Your A to Z Guide to the reality of Brexit after 31 December
29/11/2020

(Picture credit Shutterstock) A.  Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty set out the rules for leaving ...

Read
Plastics producers face a ‘wake-up call’ from both ends of the value chain
22/11/2020

Plastics producers have had a great run over the past 60 years, as demand took off for their product...

Read
Smartphone sales confirm mid-market of ‘affordable luxury’ is disappearing
15/11/2020

Another 3 months, another decline in global smartphone sales. And more pressure on mid-market player...

Read
Chemistry & the Economy webinar on Thursday
10/11/2020

Please join me for the next ACS Chemicals & Economy webinar on Thursday, at 2pm Eastern Standard...

Read
Welcome to the New Normal – a look ahead to 2030
01/11/2020

10 years ago, I took a look ahead at what we could expect in the next decade, as discussed last week...

Read
If you don’t want to know the future, look away now
25/10/2020

Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2021-2023 period. It will highlight...

Read
Chemicals in the eye of the storm as UK heads for a WTO Brexit on 1 January
18/10/2020

On Friday, the UK premier confirmed what many of us have expected for a long time. There is unlikely...

Read
Pandemic redraws the map
11/10/2020

  Companies have entered a new landscape where the coronavirus has accelerated major paradigm s...

Read

Market Intelligence

ICIS provides market intelligence that help businesses in the energy, petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

Learn more

Analytics

Across the globe, ICIS consultants provide detailed analysis and forecasting for the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer markets.

Learn more

Specialist Services

Find out more about how our specialist consulting services, events, conferences and training courses can help your teams.

Learn more

ICIS Insight

From our news service to our thought-leadership content, ICIS experts bring you the latest news and insight, when you need it.

Learn more