China’s subsidy end boosts September’s auto sales

Global autos Oct11.pngAuto sales in the key global markets of China, USA and Europe present a mixed picture as we look towards year-end (red square):

• China had a strong September, and sales are now up 6% versus 2010
• But the Auto Association claimed this was due to a last minute rush of orders caused by the ending of subsidies on smaller engines
• They forecast Q4 sales will be down 5% as a result, and expect the market overall to be up just 3% in 2011

Europe’s September sales were steady, and down 1% in 2011
• Germany remains key, with sales up 11% so far in 2011
• In the other major markets, France is stable, whilst the UK is down 5%, Italy down 11% and Spain down 21%

• The US is up 11% versus 2011, but still adrift of the pre-2008 period
• In total, it should meet the blog’s forecast of 11m-13m for the year

Overall, however, these 3 regions, which account for two thirds of global sales, are likely to show only minor growth of perhaps 3% in 2011, if China’s sales fall as forecast. This is really not good news for a market which is of such key importance for the chemical industry.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.

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