Political risk rises as polls boost Corbyn, le Pen, Trump, Sanders

Economic growth

SHARE THIS STORY

My local MP, Jeremy Corbyn, won the UK Labour Party leadership election on Saturday with a 60% majority.  An anti-NATO socialist, he has represented the constituency for 32 years, and has never held even a junior ministerial post.  Now, he could possibly become the UK’s next Prime Minister.

His path to power depends on two developments taking place, neither of which are impossible to imagine.  First, he needs to win back the 40 seats that Labour lost to the Scottish Nationalists in May.   And then he has to hope the ruling Conservative Party tears itself apart during the up-coming Europe Referendum.

Corbyn’s easy win highlights the major change taking place in Western politics:

Of course, protest movements always face problems when taking power, as they generally lack the discipline needed to be in government.  This pattern may already be playing out for Syriza in this month’s new Greek election.  But as Corbyn’s win shows, the populism they represent is now impacting mainstream parties in both the USA and Europe.

In the USA, the establishment candidacies of Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Jeb Bush for the Republicans are being upstaged by the two populist candidates – Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump:

  • Clinton’s campaign has stumbled badly over the email server controversy
  • Sanders is polling only 8% behind Clinton, and leading her in Iowa and New Hampshire primary polls
  • Bush’s campaign has fared even worse, as he is no longer seen as the front-runner
  • Donald Trump has taken an early lead, with another outsider, Ben Carson polling strongly

Meanwhile in France, polls show Marine le Pen of the National Front party with an early lead ahead of 2017’s Presidential election.  Europe’s failure to act in an united way over the Syrian refugee crisis is adding to her appeal.

This highlights how anti-establishment protest is moving slowly but surely into mainstream politics.  Of course, it is fashionable amongst political commentators to say that Corbyn, Trump, Sanders and le Pen are “unelectable”.  But this is to ignore the critical fact that governments lose elections when they become out of touch with the electorate.  As the Wall Street Journal noted last week:

“The biggest thing leaders don’t do now is listen. They no longer hear the voices of common people. Or they imitate what they think it is and it sounds backward and embarrassing. In this age we will see political leaders, and institutions, rock, shatter and fall due to that deafness.”  

The economic success of the BabyBoomer-led SuperCycle meant that politics as such took a back seat.  People no longer needed to argue over “who got what” as there seemed to be plenty for everyone.  But today, those happy days are receding into history – hence the growing arguments over inequality and relative income levels.

Companies and investors have had little experience of how such debates can impact them in recent decades.  They now need to move quickly up the learning curve.  Political risk is becoming a major issue, as it was before the 1990s.

WEEKLY MARKET ROUND-UP
My weekly round-up of Benchmark prices since the Great Unwinding began is below, with ICIS pricing comments:
Brent crude oil, down 54%
Naphtha Europe, down 52%. “Many market participants continue to observe the market. Concerns over a slowing Chinese economy linger, especially on the country’s appetite for plastics”
Benzene Europe, down 61%. “The lower spread between naphtha and benzene in recent months was driven by sluggish downstream demand in the phenol and cyclohexane markets and increasingly weak signals from the Chinese economy”
PTA China, down 44%. “Plant turnarounds in China had tightened PTA supply, sources with more market participants looking for cargoes”
HDPE US export, down 35%. “there was talk of more slippage in light trading in a market where material is plentiful.”
¥:$, down 18%
S&P 500 stock market index, unchanged

PREVIOUS POST

Stock markets weaken as 'Ring of Fire' fault-lines open

11/09/2015

“Central banks have created a debt-fuelled ‘Ring of Fire’, and we will...

Learn more
NEXT POST

US interest rate dilemma highlights fragile global economy

16/09/2015

Should it really matter that the US Federal Reserve might raise US interest rate...

Learn more
More posts
Paradigm shifts create Winners and Losers
20/10/2019

MY ANNUAL BUDGET OUTLOOK WILL BE PUBLISHED NEXT WEEK Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outl...

Read
Markets face major paradigm shifts as recession approaches
06/10/2019

Major paradigm shifts are occurring in the global economy, as I describe in a new analysis for ICIS ...

Read
No Deal Brexit still a likely option if opposition parties fail to support a new referendum
15/09/2019

Canada’s normally pro-UK ‘Globe and Mail’ summed up the prevailing external view of Brexit las...

Read
UK, EU27 and EEA businesses need to start planning for a No Deal Brexit on 31 October
28/07/2019

New UK premier, Boris Johnson, said last week that the UK must leave the EU by 31 October, “do or ...

Read
London house prices edge closer to a tumble
21/07/2019

After the excitement of Wimbledon tennis and a cricket World Cup final, Londoners were back to their...

Read
G7 births hit new record low, below Depression level in 1933
14/07/2019

If a country doesn’t have any babies, then in time it won’t have an economy. But that...

Read
From subprime to stimulus…and now social division
06/07/2019

The blog has now been running for 12 years since the first post was written from Thailand at the end...

Read
Resilience amidst headwinds is key for H2
30/06/2019

Resilience is set to become the key issue as we look forward to H2, as I note in a new analysis for ...

Read

Market Intelligence

ICIS provides market intelligence that help businesses in the energy, petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

Learn more

Analytics

Across the globe, ICIS consultants provide detailed analysis and forecasting for the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer markets.

Learn more

Specialist Services

Find out more about how our specialist consulting services, events, conferences and training courses can help your teams.

Learn more

ICIS Insight

From our news service to our thought-leadership content, ICIS experts bring you the latest news and insight, when you need it.

Learn more