The momentum-driven rally in financial markets has slowed recently, with many now in temporary trading ranges. And this is reflected in December’s IeC Boom/Gloom Index (above). The Index (blue column) has been steady since June.
Underlying fundamentals show no sign of improvement. The ‘green shoots’ index (green line), which tracks expectations for a quick economic recovery, peaked in June. It has now fallen for 5 months, and is almost back to February’s level.
Equally, the frugal index (red line), has been rising slowly since May. This probably reflects consumers’ increasing focus in the real economy on ‘needs‘ rather than ‘wants’.