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Smartphone profits under threat as market goes ex-growth

The outlook is becoming clearer for the global smartphone market, and it confirms my judgement in November, when reviewing Q3 sales: “It seems likely that a focus on price and affordability will come to dominate. In turn, pricing pressures on suppliers will intensify. The key challenge facing the market is that it has gone ex-growth.” […]

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Consensus wisdom defies reality around the world

“Consensus wisdom” is a handy way of keeping up with events.  Nobody likes to be the person who says “I don’t know” when the boss asks a question about something important.  But unfortunately, “consensus wisdom” is often wrong, as Ipsos MORI confirm in their new ’Perils of Perception‘ survey,  As the authors note: “It highlights how […]

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Midway Atoll becomes “plastic island” due to our throwaway society

Plastics have made an enormous contribution to improving our quality of life over the past 75 years.  Polyethylene (discovered in 1933), polypropylene, PVC, polystyrene, PET and many others have made our lives safer, and easier:   Plastic pipes have removed the risk of lead poisoning from our water, and helped to reduce water lost in […]

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Smartphone markets see calm before the storm as volume stagnates

The global smartphone market reached a fork in the road in Q3, and that was before Samsung’s disaster with the enforced recall of the Galaxy 7 model.  What happens next is not yet clear, but it is likely that a focus on price and affordability will come to dominate.  In turn, pricing pressures on suppliers […]

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Ring of fire Feb15

Fault-lines open connecting the debt-fuelled ‘Ring of Fire’

Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2017-2019 period. The aim, as always, is to challenge conventional wisdom when this seems to be heading in the wrong direction: The 2007 Outlook ‘Budgeting for a Downturn‘, and 2008′s ‘Budgeting for Survival’ meant I was one of the few to forecast the 2008 […]

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Sustainability replaces globalisation as key driver for economy

2 weeks ago, India ratified the COP 21 Agreement.  This means the Agreement enters into force on 4 November.  81 countries, responsible for more than 55% of greenhouse gas emissions, have now agreed to reduce emissions in line with the decisions made in Paris last December.  And last week saw another landmark Agreement, with 150 countries agreeing to […]

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Political risk rises as voters feel only the populists are listening

This week, the new UK premier, Theresa May, highlighted how the central banks have encouraged the populists’ rise: “We have to acknowledge some of the bad side-effects. People with assets have got richer, people without have not.” The problem, of course, goes wider than this.  The continuing failure to recover from the 2008 Financial Crisis […]

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US homeownership equals all-time low as demand patterns change

It is is 10 years since the US subprime bubble began to burst, with disastrous results for the US and global economy. The US Federal Reserve  had created the bubble in the belief that higher house prices would boost the economy.  It then made a bad situation into a disaster by refusing to accept that […]

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Divorce, not marriage, now fueling China’s property bubble in Shenzhen

China’s housing market has always been about marriage since it began in 1998, until recently that is.  The reason, as I noted a while ago, is that: “70% of China’s women regard “housing, a stable income and some savings” as vital for any man wanting to get married.” Women have the upper hand when it […]

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Autos Sept16

EU auto sales boosted by self-registration of unsold cars

The global auto market is currently dominated by China, where sales have more than trebled over the past 10 years. But the other 6 major markets have not always done so well.  Their total sales are up just 4.3% since they peaked before the Crisis began in 2007. As the chart, showing January – August sales since […]

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