Its amazing what a lending bubble can do in the short-term, as the above chart shows. It updates my August post for the Financial Times, and highlights the astonishing rise in China’s bank lending since 2008 on the x-axis, and the remarkable rise in auto sales on the y-axis. Official data shows average disposable income last […]
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The best view is always from the top of the mountain. That’s probably why the outlook seems so promising for US auto and housing markets. Both appear to be doing well on the surface, but dig a little deeper and concerns soon emerge. The chart above demonstrates the point, updating the data from my July post […]
Cotton prices appear to be collapsing again due to the surpluses created by central bank stimulus policies since 2009. As the chart shows, these had initially caused prices to soar to levels not seen since the American Civil War: They reached 230c/lb in March 2011, nearly double the post-1982 peak of 117c/lb in May 1995 (blue […]
In 2013, there were fewer births in the G7 countries – responsible for nearly 50% of the global economy – than in any year since the Great Depression year of 1933.* As the chart also shows, 1933 was an exception. Births bounced back immediately afterwards. But the low figure in 2013 is part of the declining trend seen since […]
‘How China fooled the world’ was the subject of an excellent BBC documentary early in 2014 by senior editor, Robert Peston. The BBC headline was as follows: “Now, Peston reveals what has actually happened inside China since the economic collapse in the west in 2008. It is a story of spending and investment on a scale never […]
The Financial Times has kindly printed my letter, commenting on their editorial about Premier Modi’s economic policies in India. Sir, Your editorial “India’s Modi should act more decisively in 2015” (December 24) has too limited a view of the policies required to generate growth in India’s economy. With gross domestic product per capita of about […]
Conventional wisdom seemed to think the US housing report was positive this week. But analysis of the data makes it hard to see why. One confusion comes from media use of the ‘seasonally adjusted’ number. But why do we need an adjustment, when we have data going back to 1959? It simply creates more potential for error. […]
Would anybody have believed these charts, if one had presented them as a forecast for auto sales a few years ago? Clearly not: Everyone knew that Europe was one of the world’s top 2 markets, and China was very small Europe’s average incomes were around $40k, whereas China’s were less than $5k even in the […]
Signs of stress seem to be appearing in the US housing market once more. Thus the Wall Street Journal reports: “An estimated one in seven appraisals conducted from 2011 through early 2014 inflated home values by 20% or more..Bankers, appraisers and federal officials in interviews said inflated appraisals are becoming more widespread as the recovery […]
Tomorrow is the great American shopping day, Black Friday. In the past, every true American would head for the malls, to shop till they dropped. But more and more evidence keeps emerging that consumer habits are rapidly entering the New Normal, as I discussed last week. Thus a detailed study by the Wall Street Journal highlights, as […]
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Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry.
The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry over the next 12 – 18 months. It will try to look behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in important issues such oil prices, economic growth and the environment. We may also have some fun, investigating a few of the more offbeat events that take place from time to time. Please do join me and share your thoughts.
Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.