Archive | Consumer demand RSS feed for this section

Americans drive less as auto market demand patterns change

34m Americans will be driving at least 50 miles this Memorial Day weekend, which marks the start of the summer ”driving season”.  But contrary to popular belief, the average American is driving less these days. The total number of miles driven is still increasing due to the rising US population.  But on an individual basis, people are driving 6% less […]

Continue Reading

India’s car market plateaus as motorbike sales dominate

Motorbikes continue to dominate India’s motor vehicle market, as the chart above shows based on new data from the industry association (India’s year runs from April – March): 16.5m 2-wheelers were sold in the year, up 2% versus 2014-15, and took 2/3rds of the market 2.8m passenger cars were also sold, with volume up 7%, and had a 12% […]

Continue Reading

Global cotton markets wait for outcome of China auctions

China’s long-promised cotton auctions have begun this week.  Their outcome will tell us a lot about President Xi Jinping’s ability to force through his New Normal changes in the economy.  It will also, of course, have major impact upon the polyester value chain, given the competition between the 2 fibres. As the slide from the […]

Continue Reading
US house May16

US home-ownership returns to 1960′s levels

US home ownership is back at levels seen briefly in the mid-1980s, and before that in the mid-1960s.  One key issue today is that while the US population is still growing, the younger population has quite a different profile from the Boomer generation, as the Pew Institute have reported. In 1980, only 1 in 10 young Boomers were […]

Continue Reading

Smartphone sales downturn highlights financial market risks

There was no great surprise in the news that global smartphone sales fell for the first time ever in Q1.  As I suggested in February, when reviewing Q4 data: “It seems almost inevitable that global growth will now follow China and go negative”. As the chart shows, Strategy Analytics data suggests that sales fell 3% in […]

Continue Reading
GDP Apr16

Global GDP saw record fall in 2015 – new IMF data

New data from the International Monetary Fund confirms that last year’s collapse in global GDP was even worse than first reported. As the chart shows,the fall when measured in current dollars was a record $4.7tn, versus $3.3tn in 2009.  And GDP was down 6% in percentage terms versus 5.3% in 2009: Even more worrying is […]

Continue Reading

Water wars, food shortages create urgent need for new, demand-led approach

Companies and investors need to refocus on demand as the key driver for future revenue and profit growth.  Supply-driven business models are no longer sufficient. ‘How do we do this?”  is the critical question, as I discuss in this short video interview with ICIS deputy news editor, Tom Brown: The key is to focus on […]

Continue Reading

BRIC auto sales stall as Brazil and Russia recessions worsen

Clouds are gathering over the auto industry, as the impact of the post-2008 stimulus programmes fades into history. It is hard to believe that back in 2013, only 3 years ago, analysts were confidently predicting that Russia would have become the world’s 5th largest market by 2020.  And they were similarly forecasting great things for Brazil, which […]

Continue Reading

US auto sales head towards price war as subprime loans rise

The warnings keep coming about the underlying health of the US auto market.  But, as with the subprime housing crisis, nobody wants to listen: Last October, the US Comptroller of the Currency warned that some activity “in auto loans reminds me of what happened in mortgage-backed securities in the run-up to the crisis“ Yet auto […]

Continue Reading

$1.8tn of stimulus later, Japan’s household spending unchanged

3 years of massive stimulus spending in Japan has had no impact on the problem it was supposed to solve.  This is highlighted by new government data on household spending for 2015, as the charts above confirm – they compare 2015 data with that for 2012, before Abenomics began: Spending was almost exactly the same […]

Continue Reading