$514bn and counting

Economic growth, Financial Events

There seems no end to the losses being revealed by the world’s major banks. The total has now reached $514bn. 110 banks and investment firms have now posted writedowns. CitiGroup, the largest US bank, tops the list with $55.1bn of losses, closely followed by Merrill Lynch with $51.8bn. Then comes UBS of Switzerland with $44.2bn.

Back in April, the IMF forecast losses of at least $1 trillion, and warned this could lead to recession. New York professor Nouriel Roubini, who has been consistently bearish, but accurate, on the size of the problems, now forecasts the total could reach $2 trillion. That would be equivalent to almost 15% of the output of the US economy.

Roubini is also forecasting that US personal consumption will fall, now the impact of the government’s Q2 $100bn stimulus package has passed. This has not happened since 1990. If Roubini is correct, 2009 could be a very difficult year for the chemical industry.

PREVIOUS POST

'A very, very serious global economic slowdown'

02/09/2008

A trend seems to be developing amongst the world’s policy makers. Last mon...

Learn more
NEXT POST

Statistics, statistics

05/09/2008

The blog has worried in the past about the way that official statistics seem to ...

Learn more
More posts
‘Watch out below!’ as supply chain chaos comes to an end
14/11/2021

“What goes up, comes down” is usually a good motto when prices start to reach for the sk...

Read
Industry now needs to step up, if Net Zero is to be achieved
31/10/2021

Net Zero is clearly the key issue of our time. With COP26 about to start, 3 key elements need to com...

Read
The Fed’s stock market bubble is at risk as China bursts its real estate bubble
24/10/2021

The US stock market bubble just keeps rising. And every investor “knows” that the US Fed...

Read
EU patience starts to run out as UK threatens to break the N Ireland Protocol
17/10/2021

Unsurprisingly, it turns out that Brexit still isn’t “oven-ready”, despite the UK ...

Read
An end to the China bubble would risk a Minsky moment
05/10/2021

My letter in today’s Financial Times warning of the risk to Western financial markets from the bur...

Read
Xi aims to “bring order out of chaos” by bursting China’s property bubble
03/10/2021

China is at the start of its biggest economic shake-up since 1978, when Deng Xiaoping launched his p...

Read
The end of China’s real estate bubble will impact global supply chains, exports and growth
26/09/2021

“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked. “Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually, then suddenly....

Read
An Evergrande default could reset the Chinese, and global, economy
19/09/2021

China’s economy has been ‘subprime on steroids’ since the financial crisis in 2008...

Read

Market Intelligence

ICIS provides market intelligence that help businesses in the energy, petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

Learn more

Analytics

Across the globe, ICIS consultants provide detailed analysis and forecasting for the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer markets.

Learn more

Specialist Services

Find out more about how our specialist consulting services, events, conferences and training courses can help your teams.

Learn more

ICIS Insight

From our news service to our thought-leadership content, ICIS experts bring you the latest news and insight, when you need it.

Learn more