China’s futures markets give mixed messages

Chemical companies, Consumer demand, Economic growth, Futures trading, Oil markets

Dalian Oct10.pngChina’s Dalian futures market has been attracting world headlines recently, with its status as China’s leading market for chemical futures being confirmed. As such, one would expect its pricing for the two major polymers traded, LLDPE (linear low density polyethylene) and PVC, to follow similar patterns.

But this seems not to be the case. The LLDPE contract has boomed recently, offering punters a chance to bet on the direction of oil prices in high volume. It traded 46 million tonnes last month, around twice total annual global output.

Yet PVC, a higher volume product globally, and in China, traded just 1/10th of this volume. And as the chart shows, its price (red line) actually fell last month, as the physical market failed to pass through higher oil prices (blue).

This highlights, of course, the more speculative nature of the LLDPE contract. Anyone using it as the basis for pricing physical product, therefore needs to keep a close eye on what happens next to crude oil prices.

PREVIOUS POST

Leading industry figures at Aromatics Conference

03/11/2010

China’s Dalian futures market has been attracting world headlines recently...

Learn more
NEXT POST

US Fed launches its $600bn QE2 Lifeboat

06/11/2010

China’s Dalian futures market has been attracting world headlines recently...

Learn more
More posts
Most businesses were nowhere near Ready for Brexit last Friday – we mustn’t make the same mistake again
14/04/2019

Thank goodness for backbench MPs and the European Union. Without their efforts, the UK would by now ...

Read
Don’t get carried away by Beijing’s stimulus
07/04/2019

Residential construction work in Qingdao, China. Government stimulus is unlikely to deliver the econ...

Read
Businesses thrilled by Brexit uncertainty: “It’s exhilarating” says small business owner
01/04/2019

With the European Commission saying that a No Deal is now “likely“, small businesses acr...

Read
Stormy weather ahead for chemicals
24/03/2019

Four serious challenges are on the horizon for the global petrochemical industry as I describe in my...

Read
$60bn opportunity opens up for plastics industry as need to eliminate single-use packaging grows
17/03/2019

150 businesses representing over 20% of the global plastic packaging market have now agreed to start...

Read
Ageing Perennials set to negate central bank stimulus as recession approaches
10/03/2019

The world’s best leading indicator for the global economy is still firmly signalling recession...

Read
Déjà vu all over again for oil markets as recession risks rise
03/03/2019

Back in 2015, veteran Saudi Oil Minister Ali  Naimi was very clear about Saudi’s need to adop...

Read
BASF prepares its UK supply chain for Brexit
24/02/2019

BASF has been working with Ready for Brexit (the online platform I co-founded last year) as part of ...

Read

Market Intelligence

ICIS provides market intelligence that help businesses in the energy, petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

Learn more

Analytics

Across the globe, ICIS consultants provide detailed analysis and forecasting for the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer markets.

Learn more

Specialist Services

Find out more about how our specialist consulting services, events, conferences and training courses can help your teams.

Learn more

ICIS Insight

From our news service to our thought-leadership content, ICIS experts bring you the latest news and insight, when you need it.

Learn more