It is now 13 years since I wrote the first post here, in June 2007. A lot has happened since then:
- There was the 2008 subprime crisis, forecast here and in the Financial Times – although sadly, few took advantage of the warning
- This led to the publication of ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal: How the Western BabyBoomers are Changing Demand Patterns, Again’. Co-authored with John Richardson, this explained the causes of the crisis and described the challenges of the approaching New Normal world
Today, of course, we face the combination of an economic and health crisis as the IMF has warned.
“Global growth will turn sharply negative in 2020. In fact, we anticipate the worst economic fallout since the Great Depression.”
Once again, I am frustrated that governments were generally so slow to recognise the risks from Covid-19. I began focusing on these 4 months ago, highlighting different areas that were likely to be impacted as the crisis developed. I hope this was helpful:
- Coronavirus disruptions make global recession almost certain (February 9)
- Financial markets head for (another) train crash as coronavirus starts to impact (February 16)
- China’s lockdown makes global debt crisis now almost certain (February 23)
- Oil markets hit perfect storm as coronavirus cuts demand (March 1)
- Chain’s smartphone and auto sales tumble as coronavirus hits demand (March 8)
Understandably, the health impact of the pandemic has been the main focus. But now, the lockdowns are coming to an end, and we are likely to see the full impact of the economic crisis start to be revealed.
I focused on the economic issues in April, and warned of the potential for major social unrest. My Real Vision interview last month also summarised my analysis:
- World risks moving from Denial into Anger as the Paradigm of Loss moves forward (April 12)
- Financial markets enter their Convulsion phase (April 19)
- The New Normal for global industry (May 31)
My sense is that major paradigm changes are underway, catalysed by the Covid crisis.
These create great opportunities for those willing and able to take advantage of them. But they will also create major challenges for those who prefer to stick their heads in the sand and assume ‘business as usual’ will return.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT OVER THE PAST 13 YEARS
It is a great privilege to write the blog, and to be able to meet many readers in workshops and conferences around the world.
I am sorry that so many have had to be canceled or postponed over the past few months – and grateful to all the organisers who have made arrangements for virtual events.
Thank you for all your support.
