A downturn, not a dip

Currencies, Economic growth, Leverage

The blog first raised this issue last December, when noting that global chemical industry production growth had already “slowed significantly”.

chprod.jpg

At that time, it questioned whether “central bankers will be able to wave the magic wand that restores us to a growth path”. And it warned “it is hard to imagine that the chemical industry can avoid a serious downturn”. The above chart, based on Kevin Swift’s must-read weekly report for the ACC, shows how serious the situation has now become.

• Asia Pacific growth has fallen from 10% in June 2007 to 3% in August
• Central/Eastern Europe has crashed from 10% to -3%
• Latin America growth has fallen from 3% to zero
• Western Europe has fallen from 3% to -1%
• N America has gone from zero to -3% in September

The Middle East is the only robust region, where new capacity based on advantaged feedstocks has caused growth to increase from 5% to 13%.

World chemicals growth is usually close to GDP. So it is ominous that growth had fallen from 5% to 1%, even betore the current Crash. This must further impact demand and credit availability. The blog therefore believes that the industry needs to prepare for a serious and extended downturn.

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