Brazil, Russia, India car sales fall for first time in 10 years

Consumer demand


India autos Jan14Since 2009, the 4 BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have been the focus of every car manufacturers’ dreams.  Whilst the West worried about ageing populations and its financial crisis, the BRICs seemed to have moved into a new dimension.

Today, however, reality is beginning to set in:

  • Auto sales in Brazil (the world’s 4th largest market) fell 1% last year for the first time in a decade, and are not expected see much growth in 2014
  • India’s sales also fell for the first time in a decade, as the chart above shows (red square)
  • Russia’s sales have fallen for the past 10 months, with 2013’s total of 2.78m down 6% versus 2012
  • Only China sales grew, as the blog will discuss tomorrow

India’s position is particularly disappointing.  Only recently, it was being billed as ‘Incredible India’.  It was expected to become a second giant Asian market, after China, within a few years.  But today, the failure of reform efforts and endemic corruption have instead caused inflation and stagnation.

Of course, there are still opportunities within the market for a targeted approach, as the blog discussed in October.  Some companies, who understand that sales depend on income levels and age range are still doing well.

Thus Ford always intended Its new low-cost EcoSport model to be manufactured in Inda for both domestic and export markets, as we discussed in chapter 8 of Boom, Gloom and the New Normal.  Its new capacity is now starting to come online, and  is being used as a  low-cost export hub for sales to S Africa, Aruba and Taiwan.  The next stage will be to ship cars to 50 countries, including Europe, Taiwan and Australia.

Ford never believed the myth that India, with average incomes of just $1k/person, was somehow about to become ‘middle class’.  Now its new capacity will provide increasingly tough competition for manufacturers in other countries via its ‘design to cost’ business model.






The trend is your friend until it isn't - part 2


“May you live in interesting times” is a Chinese proverb which has a...

Learn more

China auto sales jump to meet pollution quota deadline


China’s auto sales moved past Europe’s in 2010, and are now close to...

Learn more
More posts
Plastics producers face a ‘wake-up call’ from both ends of the value chain

Plastics producers have had a great run over the past 60 years, as demand took off for their product...

Smartphone sales confirm mid-market of ‘affordable luxury’ is disappearing

Another 3 months, another decline in global smartphone sales. And more pressure on mid-market player...

Welcome to the New Normal – a look ahead to 2030

10 years ago, I took a look ahead at what we could expect in the next decade, as discussed last week...

If you don’t want to know the future, look away now

Next week, I will publish my annual Budget Outlook, covering the 2021-2023 period. It will highlight...

The Top 5 pandemic paradigm shifts

The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated the fundamental changes which were already underway in global ...

Hertz goes bankrupt as non-essential consumer demand disappears

The US Federal Reserve has now spent $7tn bailing out Wall Street. But it couldn’t save the 10...

Smartphone sales head into decline as affordability becomes key

The smartphone sales decline accelerated in Q1, as Strategy Analytics report: “Global smartpho...

China’s plastic ban and recycling launch marks end of ‘business as usual’ for plastics industry

Paradigm shifts start slowly at first, and it is easy to miss them. But then one day, they suddenly ...


Market Intelligence

ICIS provides market intelligence that help businesses in the energy, petrochemical and fertilizer industries.

Learn more


Across the globe, ICIS consultants provide detailed analysis and forecasting for the petrochemical, energy and fertilizer markets.

Learn more

Specialist Services

Find out more about how our specialist consulting services, events, conferences and training courses can help your teams.

Learn more

ICIS Insight

From our news service to our thought-leadership content, ICIS experts bring you the latest news and insight, when you need it.

Learn more