Today’s economic situation is getting worse, not better. The blog believes this is because most policymakers still refuse to accept the wisdom contained in the Beatles’ ‘When I’m Sixty-Four’ song on their iconic Sgt Pepper album.
The Western BabyBoomers (those born between 1946-70) are the largest and richest generation that the world has ever seen.
But last year, the oldest Boomer reached the age of sixty-four. And ageing Boomers simply don’t need more housing or new cars, as they no longer have to provide for growing families.
So demand patterns are changing, radically, just as they changed in the 1970’s. This was when the arrival of the Boomers set off the economic SuperCycle, as they entered their peak consumption years between the ages of 25 – 54.
Chemical companies are therefore not only facing an imminent economic slowdown, as the blog has chronicled over the past 5 months with its IeC Downturn Alert. They also need to change their business models, to adapt to this New Normal.
This month’s Chapter 5 of the blog’s free ‘Boom, Gloom and the New Normal’ eBook, co-authored with John Richardson, aims to help with this process. The first step is for CEOs to establish a high-powered team, operating with the support of their Board and line managers, to quickly put in place the necessary Action Plan.
The team needs to answer the 4 key questions required for any successful plan:
• Why. The Board needs a clear view of the likely impact of an economic downturn, combined with the demand changes caused by the ageing of the Boomers.
• What. The team needs to highlight the key issues which its plan aims to tackle. Speed is essential, and only the really super-critical issues can be addressed short-term.
• How. Implementation plans are critical. Resources need to be available, and key managers must ‘buy-in’ to the process, otherwise it will fail.
• When. Timing is also critical. Short-term priorities (credit control, working capital) have to be balanced with the business model changes needed to adapt to the New Normal.
The outlook is very uncertain. Tomorrow’s post will discuss the relevant Scenarios that need to be addressed. And on Thursday, it will highlight the Critical Success Factors against which plans need to be measured.
The blog will be happy to provide any support or advice that may be helpful to readers as they develop their Action Plans.
International eChem/ICIS are also running three training courses in Houston, Singapore and London in Q4, to help with detailed implementation issues. Please click here for further details.