Boom/Gloom Index at a crossroad

Index Feb11.pngThe blog’s Boom/Gloom Index presents a fascinating picture this month.

The main Index (blue column) remains strongly positive, in keeping with the solid performance of most stock markets. It confirms evidence from other sentiment indices that investors are optimistic about the outlook.

But the Austerity index (red line) refuses to collapse. It is, of course, much lower than during the Eurozone crisis last May/June. But it is also very much higher than during the SuperCycle years until 2008.

These two different readings can continue for some time in an uneasy coexistence, as they did in June 2008, when the blog headed its post ‘High Inflation or Global Downturn?’.

Worryingly, much of its analysis still remains relevant today – if you have a minute, it may be worth clicking through to check for yourself.

The blog will therefore keep a very close eye on future developments, for clues as to how events may develop.

About Paul Hodges

Paul Hodges is Chairman of International eChem, trusted commercial advisers to the global chemical industry. He also serves as a Global Expert for the World Economic Forum. The aim of this blog is to share ideas about the influences that may shape the chemical industry and the global economy over the next 12 – 18 months. It looks behind today’s headlines, to understand what may happen next in critical areas such as oil prices, China and Emerging Markets, currencies, autos, housing, economic growth and the environment. Please do join me and share your thoughts. Between us, we will hopefully develop useful insights into the key factors that will drive the industry's future performance.


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